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Mid-Day Report: Greenback Tumbles on Much Weaker-than-Expected Non-Farm PayrollsU.S. job market turned out to be much weaker than most economists' forecast, U.S. Labor Department reported that June non-farm payrolls only increased by 18K, well below market consensus of 89K (some analysts even raised their expectation in view of the strong ADP private job data), previous month's figure also revised down from 54K to 25K. This is the smallest increase of job numbers since September 2010 and the 9.2% unemployment rate also worse than analysts' forecast of 9.1%, hit the highest level in 2011, suggesting recovery in U.S. economy is not as strong as previously expected by most investors. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 80.88; (P) 81.14; (R1) 81.50; More. USD/JPY's sharp fall in early US session and break of 80.76 minor support suggests that choppy recovery from 79.69 has likely finished at 81.46 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 80.25 support first. Break there will be the first signal that fall from 82.22, as well as that from 85.51 is resuming and should target 79.56 support and below. On the upside, break of 81.46 is needed to invalidate hits view or we'll stay cautiously bearish. |
| Special Reports |
ECB Raises Interest Rates to 1.5%, Sees Growth Momentum DecelerateThe ECB raised the main refinancing rate by +25 bps to 1.5%, the highest level since March 2008. The interest rate corridor stayed unchanged at +/-75bps. While there were few changes in the language in the accompanying statement, the central bank noted the momentum of economic recovery has moderated. The ECB continued to describe the monetary stance as 'accommodative'. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.8460Despite intra-day brief rise to 0.8523, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below previous resistance at 0.8525, suggesting the rebound from 0.8364 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for another test of said support at 0.8364, break there would suggest the correction from recent low of 0.8276 is over and bring further fall towards next support at 0.8306 later. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 81.20Although the greenback rose marginally to 81.49, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent selloff after the release of weaker-than-expected NFP data suggest top is possibly formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for test of previous support at 80.54, however, break there is needed to confirm and extend weakness to next support at 80.27 and possibly towards 80.01 which is likely to hold on first testing. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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