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Daily Report: Aussie Slips as RBA Keeps Rate on Hold and Shows a More Dovish ToneRBA kept cash rate unchanged at 4.75% as expected and although the central bank remains concerned about inflation and reiterated that the current mildly restrictive policy is still appropriate, a statement from RBA indicated that growth through 2011 is now unlikely to be as strong as earlier forecast, the more dovish tone suggested the central bank is more likely to stay on hold for longer period, which caused the aussie to fall in Asian session from 1.0747 to as low as 1.0664. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0697; (P) 1.0741; (R1) 1.0770; More The break of 1.0673 minor support indicates that a temporary top is formed in AUD/USD at 1.0789 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations could be see first with risk of deeper retreat. But downside is expected to be contained well above 1.0390 support and bring rebound. At this moment, we're still favoring the case that correction pattern from 1.1011 is finished with three waves down to 1.0390 already. Above 1.0789 will target a retest on 1.1011 first. Break will confirm medium term up trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 0.9703 to 1.1011 from 1.0390 at 1.1198 next. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Makes No Change In Cash Rate, Shows Worries On Growth SlowdownThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a 7th consecutive meeting in July and unveiled a less hawkish outlook in the accompanying statement. Policymakers showed concerns on growth slowdown as well as banking and sovereign debt problems in the Eurozone. Inflation pressure is less of a concern as commodities have softened recently. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8420Although the greenback has edged higher again this morning in Asia, dollar met offers at 0.8508 and has retreated again, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and as long as Friday’s high of 0.8525 (where a shooting star candlestick pattern was formed) holds, near term downside risk remains for retracement to 0.8416-30 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8276-0.8525) but 0.8393 (previous support) should hold, bring another rise later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4440Despite intra-day rebound to 1.4554, as the single currency has retreated this morning after faltering below yesterday’s high of 1.4580 on dollar’s broad-based strength, suggesting a minor top has been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to previous support at 1.4437, however, downside should be limited to 1.4409 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4237-1.4580) and bring another rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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