Euro Remains Weak on Eurozone Debt Crisis and Talk of Possible Greek Default

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Daily Report: Euro Remains Weak on Eurozone Debt Crisis and Talk of Possible Greek Default

The single currency extended recent decline this morning below 1.4200 to a 2-week low on renewed concerns over Europe economy, an article from FT indicated that some EU leaders are for the first time would discuss the possibility of a selective default of Greece on some of their bonds as part of a new bailout plan in order to put Athens debt condition on a more sustainable ground. In addition news that European Council President Herman Van Rompuy calling for an emergency meeting of top officials (ECB President Trichet, European Economic Commissioner Rehn and Luxembourg Prime Minister Juncker are expected to join) today in European morning to deal with the eurozone debt crisis also put pressure on euro, Light stops below 1.4200 were triggered and more bids from Asian names are reported at 1.4180 (stops placed below there) with more stops tipped at 1.4150. On the upside, cross-related offers are noted from 1.4230 to 1.4250 with stops building up above 1.4300.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8825; (P) 0.8913; (R1) 0.8963; More

EUR/GBP's fall from 0.9083 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside with focus on 0.8858 support. As noted before, current development suggests that the five wave sequence from 0.8284 has possibly finished at 0.9083 already. Sustained break of 0.8858 support will confirm this case and target 0.8720 support and below. On the upside, break of 0.9000 minor resistance is needed to indicate completion of fall from 0.9083 or we'd expect more downside ahead even in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jun 2.90% 2.70% 2.70%
1:30 AUD Home Loans May 4.40% 4.50% 4.80% 4.60%
5:00 JPY Household Confidence Jun 35.3 35.7 34.2
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jun P 53.30%
34.00%
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Jun
185.0K 183.6K
14:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey



Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6010

Despite Friday’s strong rebound from 1.5931 to 1.6078, the subsequent euro-led selloff suggests consolidation with downside bias would be seen for test of said support at 1.5931, however, break of recent low at 1.5912 is needed to confirm downtrend has resumed and extend weakness to 1.5870 and possibly towards 1.5950, otherwise, further broad consolidation cannot be ruled out.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 81.20

Despite Friday’s selloff from 81.49 to 80.50, lack of follow through selling on the break of previous support at 80.54 and the subsequent recovery suggest consolidation would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 81.00) cannot be ruled out, however, as top has been formed at 81.49, upside would be limited and bring another decline later. A sustained breach below 80.50 would add credence to our view that rebound from 79.96 has ended

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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