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Mid-Day Report: The Greenback Surges on Much Better-than-Expected ADP Job DataThe greenback remained confined within narrow range in early part of European trading, the decisions from both central banks came in as expected, European Central Bank raised rate from 1.25% to 1.5% whilst the Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, not much reaction from the announcements until the release of U.S. ADP employment change which surprised markets. A report from ADP Employer Services showed that U.S. private sector increased much more jobs in June than economists expected, the number came in at 157K, well above consensus of 80K and also far better than previous month's figure at 38K. The greenback jumped across the board shortly after the release of the hiring figures, surged to an intra-day high of 81.42 (USD/JPY), 1.4220 (EUR/USD) and 0.8495 (USD/CHF) and stops were triggered. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4244; (P) 1.4355 (R1) 1.4424; More. EUR/USD dips further to 1.4220 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.4102 support. At this point, there is no change in the view that price actions from 1.4939 are unfolding as triangle consolidation pattern. Hence, strong support is expected from 1.4102 support and bring rebound. Above 1.4347 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside. Also, further break of 1.4577 resistance will now be the first signal of up trend resumption for another high above 1.4939. After all, we'd stay bullish and expect an eventual upside breakout as long as 1.3969 support holds. |
| Special Reports |
ECB Raises Interest Rates to 1.5%, Sees Growth Momentum DecelerateThe ECB raised the main refinancing rate by +25 bps to 1.5%, the highest level since March 2008. The interest rate corridor stayed unchanged at +/-75bps. While there were few changes in the language in the accompanying statement, the central bank noted the momentum of economic recovery has moderated. The ECB continued to describe the monetary stance as 'accommodative'. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 81.10Current rally above indicated resistance area at 81.27-33 signals an upside break of recent range has taken place and early retreat from 82.23 has ended at 79.69, hence this rise from 79.69 should extend gain to next resistance at 81.77 and then towards said resistance at 82.23 which is likely to hold from here due to near term overbought condition. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 0.9680The greenback only recovered to as high as 0.9695 yesterday (we recommended to sell at 0.9700) before running into renewed selling interest and resumed recent decline from 0.9914, suggesting further weakness to indicated support level at 0.9513 would be seen, however, break there is needed to signal wave 5 is underway for an eventual retest of wave 3 low of 0.9446. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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