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Euro Slips on Rising Italian Bond Yields Due to Concerns Over Debt Crisis ContagionThe single currency extended yesterday's fall on renewed worries over eurozone debt crisis contagion after Italian debt auction resulted at highest borrowing cost in 11 years, falling Italian bond due to high yields in the secondary market put extra pressure on euro. The surging Italian bond yields intensified concerns that the second Greek bailout plan agreed last week may not be sufficient to stop the debt crisis from spreading to other eurozone countries like Italy and Spain. The release of eurozone confidence index (including consumer, economic, industrial and services sectors) all came in weaker than economists' forecast, which also contributed to euro's weakness. The single currency quickly slipped to 1-week low of 1.1.4253 in European session after triggering stops at 1.4320 and 1.4300 (as indicated in our previous update). More stops are reported at 1.4240/45 (from trading system funds) but sizeable bids from U.S. and UK banks are tipped further out from 1.4220 down to 1.4200. On the upside, some offers are likely to appear at 1.4300 with short-term stops placed above 1.4310 |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 111.57; (P) 112.39; (R1) 112.85; More EUR/JPY's break of 111.45 minor support suggests that recovery from 109.57 has completed at 113.56 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 109.57 first. Break will confirm resumption of whole fall from 123.31 and should target 61.8% projection from 117.74 to 109.57 from 113.56 at 108.51 next. On the upside, break of 113.56 resistance is needed to invalidate this view or we'll stay cautiously bearish in the cross. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ may Increase Interest Rates in SeptemberWhile the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in July, it delivered clearly the attention to remove the post-earthquake 50 bps insurance cut as 'current global financial risks recede and the economy continues to recover'. It's very likely that the rate hike will place in as soon as September. Yet, the emphasis to 'take back' the 50 bps insurance cut suggested that the coming rate hike would be a special one and would not imply the beginning of the tightening cycle. US Beige Book Shows Growth Slowdown in Early JulyThe latest Beige Book showed that economic growth in 8 out of 12 Fed districts moderated in early July (on or before July 15). Manufacturing activity continued to expand, with 2 districts growing at a 'somewhat faster rate since the last Beige Book'. Consumer spending increased as overall as falling gasoline prices have encouraged shopping and other 'additional spending'. Employment, however, remained soft while wage pressure remained subdued during the period. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6400Despite intra-day drop from 1.6365 to 1.6295, lack of follow through selling and current rebound suggest consolidation would take place, however, as top has been formed at 1.6440, upside should be limited to said resistance and the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6405) should attract renewed selling interest, bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend yesterday’s fall from 1.6440 top for retracement of recent upmove to 1.6274 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0950As aussie has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday’s rally to record high of 1.1081, justifying our latest count that only minor wave 3 of v has ended at 1.1012 and further gain in minor wave 5 to 1.1100 and then 1.1120 would be seen, however, reckon 1.1195/00 (61.8% projection of 0.9706-1.1012 measuring from 1.0390) would limit upside due to near term overbought condition. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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