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Weakens as Vote on a Republican Proposal to Raise U.S. Debt Limit PostponedDespite trading narrowly earlier today and in overnight session, the greenback slipped again after the news that the voting by the U.S. House of Representatives will be postponed, the obvious reason behind the delay is the Republican do not have enough vote to pass the measure so they wanted to squeeze more time to convince other party members. Nevertheless, Democrats in Senate are still strongly against the measures which they considered only a short-term solution. The greenback fell to another 4-month low against the Japanese yen to 77.45, verbal intervention by Japanese officials seemed not working with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano saying the government will closely watch moves on the FX market and Finance Minister Noda said intervention has some positive effect and decisive action will be taken to deal with excessive volatility but not to keep the yen in specific level. Option barrier at 77.50 was finally cleared and stops below 77.40 are in focus with more barriers seen at 77.25, 77.00 and further out at 76.00 (large). On the upside, offers are lined up from 77.80 up to 78.00 with stops only emerging above 78.20 and 78.55/60. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0960; (P) 1.1018; (R1) 1.1059; More The break of 1.0968 minor support suggests that a temporary top is formed at 1.1079. Intraday bias is turned neutral and some consolidations could be seen first. But downside is expected to be contained 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0879) and bring another rise. Above 1.1079 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9703 to 1.1011 at 1.0390 at 1.1198 next. In any case, we'll stay bullish as long as 1.0789 resistance turned support holds. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ may Increase Interest Rates in SeptemberWhile the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in July, it delivered clearly the attention to remove the post-earthquake 50 bps insurance cut as 'current global financial risks recede and the economy continues to recover'. It's very likely that the rate hike will place in as soon as September. Yet, the emphasis to 'take back' the 50 bps insurance cut suggested that the coming rate hike would be a special one and would not imply the beginning of the tightening cycle. US Beige Book Shows Growth Slowdown in Early JulyThe latest Beige Book showed that economic growth in 8 out of 12 Fed districts moderated in early July (on or before July 15). Manufacturing activity continued to expand, with 2 districts growing at a 'somewhat faster rate since the last Beige Book'. Consumer spending increased as overall as falling gasoline prices have encouraged shopping and other 'additional spending'. Employment, however, remained soft while wage pressure remained subdued during the period. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.20As the greenback has remained under pressure after breaking support at 77.57, suggesting near term downside risk remains for recent downtrend to extend one more fall to 77.20, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and bring rebound later. A break of 77.87-88 (intra-day resistance and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) would suggest low is possibly formed Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell again at 0.9610The greenback did rebound as suggested in our previous update, retaining our view that a minor low is possibly formed at 0.9407 earlier this week and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to this week’s high of 0.9526 and possibly towards 0.9590-95 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9780 to 0.9407), however, renewed selling interest should emerge well below 0.9635-38 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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