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Mid-Day Report: Risk Appetite Hurt by China Hike and PortugalRisk appetite took another hit today as China hiked benchmark interest rates for the third time this year. The one-year lending rate was raised from 6.41% to 6.56%, effective tomorrow while the one year despite rate was raised from 3.25% to 3.5%. The act is seen as another move to cool surging inflation, which hit 34 month high of 5.% in May and is still climbing in an overheated economy. Data released in US saw Challenger job cuts rose 5.3% yoy in June. Canadian Building permits rose 20.9% mom in May. Focus will turn to US ISM non-manufacturing index now. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 116.52; (P) 117.06; (R1) 117.45; More EUR/JPY's fall from 117.74 extends further today and the break of 115.89 minor support indicates that rebound from 113.49 has completed. More importantly this suggests that price actions from 113.41 are merely consolidation to fall from 123.31 and has completed with three waves to 117.74 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 113.41/49 first. Break will confirm fall resumption to 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 113.41 from 117.74 at 111.62 first. On the upside, break of 117.74 resistance is needed to invalidate this view or we'll stay cautiously bearish. |
| Special Reports |
ECB To Hike In July, Probably Second Last Time This YearThe market is awaiting ECB's rate hike on Thursday. At the June meeting, the Governing Council stated 'strong vigilance is warranted to prevent recent price rises from spreading to broad-based inflationary pressures. ECB President Trichet reiterated last week that 'strong vigilance' is needed to combat inflation. These comments signaled a rate hike to 1.5% is imminent in July. While sovereign debt problems in the Eurozone persist, the situation is eased temporarily as Greece succeeded tapping EU/IMF/ECB funding after approval of the 78B euro austerity plan. This made it even easier for policymakers to opt for a rate hike. RBA Makes No Change In Cash Rate, Shows Worries On Growth SlowdownThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a 7th consecutive meeting in July and unveiled a less hawkish outlook in the accompanying statement. Policymakers showed concerns on growth slowdown as well as banking and sovereign debt problems in the Eurozone. Inflation pressure is less of a concern as commodities have softened recently. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 0.9700As the greenback has recovered after yesterday’s fall to 0.9580, minor consolidation would be seen and retracement to 0.9650 is likely, however, as wave 4 top has been formed at 0.9914 last week, upside should be limited to 0.9695-00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9884-0.9580) and bring another decline later. A breach of said support would extend weakness to key support at 0.9513, however, break there is needed to signal wave 5 is underway Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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