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Dollar Recovers on Intervention Fears and Concerns Over Sufficiency of Greek Bailout PlanThe greenback extended losses against the Japanese yen to another 4-month low of 77.57 in European session, however, price then recovered as fears of intervention remain. Uncertainty over U.S. debt ceiling negotiation between Democratic and Republican leaders continued to put pressure on the greenback and as long as the lawmakers are unable to agree on a plan to lift the government of debt ceiling at the amount of US$ 14.3 trillion before 2 Aug deadline, it is quite difficult to see the greenback from rebounding against other major currencies especially those traditional safe haven alternatives such as Swiss franc and Japanese yen. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4403; (P) 1.4464 (R1) 1.4571; More. EUR/USD formed a temporary top at 1.4537 and retreats today. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.4282 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Focus remains on 1.4577 resistance. Decisive break there will indicate that correction pattern from 1.4939 has completed with three waves down to 1.3837. In such case, the larger up trend is likely resuming for 1.5 and beyond. However, with 1.4577 resistance intact, a break of 1.4282 will likely bring another fall before correction from 1.4939 completes. |
| Special Reports |
Aussie Strong in AUD/CAD, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD after CPI, AUD/NZD Depends on RBNZAUD/USD jumps to new record high today with a strong boost from much higher than expected inflation data in Q2. The data immediately ended the unjustified talk of rate cut from RBA and markets are back to consensus that the next direction in the bank's monetary policy is only up. While broad based weakness in the greenback also helped pushed AUD/USD, it's noted that the Aussie is also strong broadly. Strength in gold also helped. In particular, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are both likely heading to new record lows in near term. Aussie is also trying to regain strength against other commodity currencies as well where we see the strong rise in AUD/CAD as an early signal of up trend resumption. AUD/NZD is trying to get support from a channel line but the fortune of AUD/NZD would very much depends on RBNZ statement in the coming Asian session. RBNZ To Leave OCR Unchanged At 2.5%, Acknowledge Stronger-Than-Expected Domestic DevelopmentsIt's almost certain that the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in July. While domestic economic developments have improved significantly since the last meeting, risks that global economic and financial conditions will surprise to the downside are still high. Meanwhile, strength in New Zealand dollar has been providing some tightening effects, thus reducing the urgency of an official rate hike. That being said, the more likely timing for an increase in interest rate would be in 4Q11. |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4405As the single currency has continued to move lower in European session, suggesting a minor top has been formed at 1.4537 and retracement to 1.4431-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4325-1.4537 and previous resistance) and then the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4423) is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.4406 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4325-1.4537) and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0950Aussie has rallied today after the release of higher-than-expected Australian CPI data, price broke above previous resistance at 1.1012, adding credence to our latest count that only minor wave 3 of v has ended at 1.1012 and indicated upside target at 1.1060 (61.8% projection of 0.8066-1.0257 measuring from 0.9706) has been met, further gain in minor wave 5 to 1.1100 and 1.1120 would be seen Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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