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Daily Report: The Greenback Down as Moody's Put US Credit Rating in Review for Possible DowngradeThe greenback dropped across the board, hurt by testimony by Fed’s Bernanke on possible QE3 and Moody's warnings on U.S. economy. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered semi-annual testimony on the economy and monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday and he clearly indicated that the Fed is open to more monetary stimulus action including buying more government bonds, if needed in the event U.S. growth does slow down. His remarks increased the potential for another round of quantitative easing which quickly put dollar on the defensive side, euro and cable surged to as high as 1.4282 and 1.6195 respectively whilst USD/JPY slipped to a marginal low of 78.45 today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.1521; (P) 1.1621; (R1) 1.1681; More EUR/CHF's decline extends further to as low as 1.1492 so far and met mentioned long term projection target of 1.1516. While the cross is losing some downside momentum, there is no sign of bottoming yet and intraday bias remains on the downside with 1.1751 minor resistance intact. Sustained trading below 1.15 will target next cluster level at 1.0903/23 (100% projection of 1.3243 to 11082 from 1.2344 at 1.0903 and 161.8% projection of 1.3833 to 1.2399 from 1.3243 at 1.0923). On the upside, above 1.1721 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring consolidations. |
| Special Reports |
Fed Will Wait And See Before Another Move, Despite Signal Of Further StimulusFed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before the House gave further signals that more expansionary measures are possible for boosting growth. Initial market reaction: higher equities, higher commodities, lower Treasury prices and lower USD, suggested investors welcomed additional stimulus. Concerning the growth outlook, the Chairman stated that recent slowdown has been driven by temporary factors such as surges in gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions to auto production following the earthquake in Japan. He retained the growth forecasts by FOMC members. Chinese Macro Data Surprise To The UpsideThe new set of Chinese macroeconomic data presented pleasant surprises and further signaled talks of hard landing might have been overdone. While GDP growth moderated to +9.5% y/y in 2Q11 from +9.7% in the prior quarter, it exceeded market consensus of a +9.3% expansion. The upside surprise was driven by strong growth in industrial production (IP). Considering the policy outlook, we expect the government will maintain a tight monetary stance in order to keep inflation under control. Yet, chances of further rate hikes and increases in RRR in the second half of the year must be lower than the first half. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 78.55Although the greenback fell marginally to 78.45 this morning, as price has rebounded form there, suggesting a temporary low is possibly formed and consolidation with upside bias remains but a sustained breach of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 79.67) is needed to add credence to this view and bring retracement of recent decline towards 80.00 but reckon previous support at 80.50 would remain intact. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4115Despite intra-day rally to 1.4282, as the single currency has retreated from there, suggesting minor top is formed and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4134 is likely, however, reckon pullback would be limited to 1.4112 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3838-1.4282) and bring rebound later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from 1.3838 low for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.4300 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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