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Daily Report: Japanese Yen Retreats from 4-Month High on Intervention FearsThe Japanese yen surged again in pre-Tokyo morning, hit a fresh 4-month high of 78.48 against the greenback on stop-loss selling after the break of 79.00, however, the yen quickly retreated from highs versus other currencies in part due to rumors that Japanese officials may intervene the forex market to stem yen’s strength. Comments from Japanese top officials were seen supporting the yen, Economic Minister Kaoru Yosano said today that Japan’s economy will show bright signs from autumn this year towards next year, He also warned that Europe’s sovereign debt problem is worsening to an alarming degree. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa also gave upbeat remarks by saying Japan’s economy is recovering on a better supply conditions, production activities are picking up with rising exports. |
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USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 78.82; (P) 79.60; (R1) 80.02; More. USD/JPY dropped further to as low as 78.46 and met mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 85.51 to 79.56 from 82.22 at 78.54 and then recovered. At this point, we'd favor another fall as long as 79.85 minor resistance holds. Below 78.46 should bring another decline towards 75.98 low. On the upside, above 79.85 will bring consolidations. But upside of recover is expected to be limited below 81.46 resistance and then bring another fall to extend the whole decline from 85.51. |
| Special Reports |
Chinese Macro Data Surprise To The UpsideThe new set of Chinese macroeconomic data presented pleasant surprises and further signaled talks of hard landing might have been overdone. While GDP growth moderated to +9.5% y/y in 2Q11 from +9.7% in the prior quarter, it exceeded market consensus of a +9.3% expansion. The upside surprise was driven by strong growth in industrial production (IP). Considering the policy outlook, we expect the government will maintain a tight monetary stance in order to keep inflation under control. Yet, chances of further rate hikes and increases in RRR in the second half of the year must be lower than the first half. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.600As the British pound has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday’s strong rebound from 1.5781, we are keeping our view that a temporary low has been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to 1.5965-70 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6078-1.5781 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top), however, reckon 1.6003 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6240 to 1.5781) would hold and bring retreat later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.80Although the greenback slipped overnight to the lowest level since mid-March, as dollar has rebounded quickly from 78.48, a hammer candlestick pattern was formed on the hourly chart, suggesting low is possibly formed and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement to 80.00, however, break of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 80.33) is needed to add credence to this view and bring a stronger rebound towards 80.78-83 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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