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Mid-Day Report: Greenback Still Weak on Concerns Over Failing U.S. Debt TalksThe greenback remained under broad-based pressure as there is still no sign of any solid progress in the debt talks in U.S. and rising risk for the rating agencies to downgrade U.S. top credit rating. The single currency surged to the highest level since 5 July of 1.4522 after triggering stops at 1.4450 and 1.4500. Hawkish comments from ECB’s Noyer were seen helping to push the euro higher as he said the central bank is in a state of strong vigilance, however, the single currency retreated ahead of U.S. opening in part due to a denial of the comment from Noyer and some traders are awaiting the release of U.S. July consumer confidence index and new home sales at 14:00GMT, market consensus at 57.9 versus previous reading of 58.5 but there are rumors that the number may come even lower at 56.00. At the moment, bids in good size from Asian CBs and marginal traders are reported at 1.4430-40 and more at 1.4400-10 whilst on the upside, stops are building up above 1.4530 with offers seen at 1.4500-10. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6243; (P) 1.6293; (R1) 1.6325; More. GBP/USD rises further to as high as 1.6420 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.6545 resistance as noted before, correction from 1.6746 should have completed with three waves down to 1.5780 already. Break of 1.6545 will affirm this bullish case and should send GBP/USD through 1.6746 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6261 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But we'll stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.6004 support holds. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ To Leave OCR Unchanged At 2.5%, Acknowledge Stronger-Than-Expected Domestic DevelopmentsIt's almost certain that the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in July. While domestic economic developments have improved significantly since the last meeting, risks that global economic and financial conditions will surprise to the downside are still high. Meanwhile, strength in New Zealand dollar has been providing some tightening effects, thus reducing the urgency of an official rate hike. That being said, the more likely timing for an increase in interest rate would be in 4Q11. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.7965As the greenback has recovered after intra-day fall to fresh record low of 0.7997, minor consolidation would take place, however, as long as resistance at 0.8077 holds, near term downside risk remains for downtrend to extend marginal weakness to 0.7975 (61.8% projection of 0.8525-0.8034 measuring from 0.8278) but loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.7960/65 and bring a minor correction later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 112.30Although the single currency retreated to 112.03 yesterday, euro found renewed buying interest there in line with our expectation (we recommended to buy euro at 112.30) and today’s rally has retained bullishness for the rebound from 109.58 (bottom of 2nd c leg) to extend gain to 113.66 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 117.74-109.58), break there would add credence to our view that B wave has possibly ended at 109.58 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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