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Daily Report: Euro Under Pressure on Debt Crisis but Traders Await ECB and BOE Rate AnnouncementsDespite dollar's rebound against euro and sterling yesterday, the Japanese yen was locked within relatively narrow range versus the greenback as focus remains on ECB and BOE rate decision to be announced later today. Having said that the yen surged against the euro as the single currency came under broad-based selling pressure partly due to concerns over Europe's debt crisis. Selloff in Europe peripheral bonds started when Moody's slashed Portugal's rating (just 4 notches to junk status) which caused euro to tumble yesterday against other major currencies, eur/usd slipped from 1.4467 to as low as 1.4286 yesterday. There are still rumors that Moody's Investors Service may also cut Ireland's credit rating following Portugal, however, Moody's said it differentiates significantly among European periphery countries which suggests a downgrade in Ireland may not come as early as speculated. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.1927; (P) 1.2049; (R1) 1.2132; More Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside and fall from 1.2344 is expected to continue to retest 1.1802 low. Though, decisive break there is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, more consolidations would likely be seen first. Meanwhile, above 1.2171 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 1.2344 and above to extend the correction from 1.1802. |
| Special Reports |
A Look at Euro Crosses ahead of ECB HikeEuro was hit hard this week by Moody's downgrade of Portugal's credit rating by four notches to junks status. If not for expectation on ECB rate hike on Thursday, and more down the road, the common current could fall even deeper. The common currency will continue to face two contrasting forces, the never-ending worries of sovereign debt crisis in peripheral states, and expectation of more tightening from ECB to guard against second round effect of inflation. The indecisiveness and volatility is clearly manifested in the triangle pattern in EUR/USD that start at 1.4934 back in May. Since then, EUR/USD has been gyrating inside converging range between 1.4 and 1.5. ECB To Hike In July, Probably Second Last Time This YearThe market is awaiting ECB's rate hike on Thursday. At the June meeting, the Governing Council stated 'strong vigilance is warranted to prevent recent price rises from spreading to broad-based inflationary pressures. ECB President Trichet reiterated last week that 'strong vigilance' is needed to combat inflation. These comments signaled a rate hike to 1.5% is imminent in July. While sovereign debt problems in the Eurozone persist, the situation is eased temporarily as Greece succeeded tapping EU/IMF/ECB funding after approval of the 78B euro austerity plan. This made it even easier for policymakers to opt for a rate hike. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 80.40Dollar’s retreat after this week’s rise to 81.19 suggests further consolidation below indicated resistance at 81.27-33 would be seen and pullback to week’s low at 80.54 cannot be ruled out, however, support at 80.27 should hold from here and bring another rebound later. A break of said level at 81.27-33 is needed to retain bullishness and signal the retreat from 82.23 has ended at 79.96, bring further gain to next resistance at 81.77 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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