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Daily Report: Euro and High Yielding Currencies Remain Firm but Trading to be Subdued ahead of NFPThe single currency maintained a firm undertone, trading around 1.4340-50 in Asia after rebounding from 1.4220 yesterday as European Central Bank hiked rates and showed concerns over inflation. ECB raised rate by 25 basis points yesterday, though is widely expected, as the central bank has decided to suspend rating threshold for Portugal and offered to provide liquidity to the country regardless of its rating, euro rebounded versus the greenback, Japanese yen as well as the British pound. Despite skipping the wordings of 'strong vigilance', as ECB President Trichet expressed that they are still monitoring inflation closely and he does see risk on the upside, suggesting there are still room for further rate hike in 2011. We heard U.S. banks and funds are offering at 1.4380-1.4400 and more selling interest is located at 1.4425, one the downside, bids are reported at 1.4300 with stops placed below 1.4280 with a option expires today at 1.4275 and 1.4340. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9545; (P) 0.9605; (R1) 0.9642; More. Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9912 to 0.9578 from 0.9694 at 0.9488. and then a test on 0.9444 low. Break there will confirm resumption of medium term down trend. On the upside, break of 0.9694 resistance is needed to signal short term bottom or we'll stay bearish even in case of recovery. |
| Special Reports |
Strong Non-Farm Payroll Anticipated, Aussie to Gain Most?Market sentiments were given a strong boost today by the stronger than expected ADP employment data. The report showed 157k expansion in the private job market in June, nearly double market consensus of 80k. The ADP data undershot government's private employment data for around 40k in the past three months and judging from the, tomorrows private job gain from Non-Farm payroll report could show as much as 200k. Subtracting around 20k loss across state and local governments the headline NFP number could be as higher 180k, which will be around double of market expectation of 89k. Such optimism sent stocks broadly higher with DOW up 1% at the time of writing, crude oil breached 99 level while commodity currencies all jumped against the greenback. ECB Raises Interest Rates to 1.5%, Sees Growth Momentum DecelerateThe ECB raised the main refinancing rate by +25 bps to 1.5%, the highest level since March 2008. The interest rate corridor stayed unchanged at +/-75bps. While there were few changes in the language in the accompanying statement, the central bank noted the momentum of economic recovery has moderated. The ECB continued to describe the monetary stance as 'accommodative'. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4280As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday’s sharp rebound from 1.4220, suggesting a temporary low has been formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of this week’s fall from 1.4580 to previous support at 1.4395, then test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.4409), however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and bring a stronger rebound to 1.4442 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 81.00Although the greenback surged yesterday after the release of better-than-expected U.S. ADP job data, as price has retreated from there on profit-taking, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen, however, as yesterday’s breach of indicated resistance area at 81.27-33 adds credence to our view that early retreat from 82.23 has ended at 79.69 and this rise from 79.69 should extend gain to next resistance at 81.77 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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