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Euro off from 4-Week High on Renewed Worries Over Eurozone Debt Crisis ContagionThe single currency has remained under pressure after yesterday's sharp retreat on renewed worries over eurozone debt crisis contagion, euro traded off over 1-month high of 1.4537 after rating agency Standard & Poor's said Greece will partially default on its debt once EU officials finish implementing the second Greek bailout plan agreed last week, S&P also downgraded Greece rating from CCC to CC (junk status) with negative outlook. |
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EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 111.57; (P) 112.39; (R1) 112.85; More EUR/JPY dips to as low as 111.53 so far today but with 111.45 minor support intact, intraday bias remains neutral. Price actions from 109.57 is treated as consolidations in recent decline only and upside is still expected to be limited by 113.49 resistance. on the downside, below 111.45 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 109.57 first. Break will target 100% projection of 123.31 to 113.41 from 117.74 at 107.84 next. Also, note that break of 113.41/117.74 resistance is needed to confirm reversal or we'll stay cautiously bearish. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ may Increase Interest Rates in SeptemberWhile the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in July, it delivered clearly the attention to remove the post-earthquake 50 bps insurance cut as 'current global financial risks recede and the economy continues to recover'. It's very likely that the rate hike will place in as soon as September. Yet, the emphasis to 'take back' the 50 bps insurance cut suggested that the coming rate hike would be a special one and would not imply the beginning of the tightening cycle. US Beige Book Shows Growth Slowdown in Early JulyThe latest Beige Book showed that economic growth in 8 out of 12 Fed districts moderated in early July (on or before July 15). Manufacturing activity continued to expand, with 2 districts growing at a 'somewhat faster rate since the last Beige Book'. Consumer spending increased as overall as falling gasoline prices have encouraged shopping and other 'additional spending'. Employment, however, remained soft while wage pressure remained subdued during the period. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6400Yesterday’s euro-led retreat signals a temporary top has been formed at 1.6440 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for retracement of recent upmove to 1.6274 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6005-1.6440), however, break of this week’s low at 1.6262 is needed to retain bearishness for a deeper correction to 1.6223 (50% Fibonacci retracement) before prospect of another rebound. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.50Despite yesterday’s rebound from 77.57 to 78.17, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below the Ichimoku cloud bottom, suggesting a retest of said support cannot be ruled out, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 77.50 and bring rebound later. A break of 78.17-24 (said yesterday’s high and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) would suggest low is possibly formed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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