forexlive

---

• EMU DATA: May construction output -1.1% m/m, -1.9%…
• Greek April unemployment at 15.8% vs 16.2% in March
• ZEW institute July German economic sentiment -15.1 vs -9.0 in June
• Spain treasury sells 3788 mln 12 mnth t-bills vs 3958 mln at previous auction
• Guess…..
• EU officials examining 3 broad options to secure private sector role in 2nd Greek bailout package – Policy options paper
• EUR/USD extends rally
• Rumour: European summit has been brought forward to Wednesday
• Germany eyes deal with swiss banks on taxes, Handelsblatt says
• Back to where we were…
• FX option expiries for todays 14:00 GMT cut
• EUR/USD steadies a little after early slide
• ECB Nowotny: “Our Decision” What Kind Of Collateral To Accept
• Japan June Dept Sales +0.3% Y/Y; 1st Gain in Four Months
• EUR/USD extends slide
• China faces ‘sizeable bailout’ for banks – Standard Chartered
• JAPAN DATA: Department store sales in Japan snapped..
• ECB’s Nowotny: Default would have very grave consequences
• Taking a punt on a short AUD/USD trade
• ForexLive Asian market wrap: RBA drops reference to tighter policy

EMU DATA: May construction output -1.1% m/m, -1.9%… Posted: EMU DATA: May construction output -1.1% m/m, -1.9% y/y: Eurostat – EMU April construction output rev up +1.2% m/m (+0.7%) – EMU April+May avg const output +0.4% vs 1q avg – EMU 1q const. output rev +1.3% q/q (+1.2%), 4q -1.9%, 3q -5.0% – EMU May structural const -0.7% m/m;civil engineering -1.2% m/m – For [...]

Greek April unemployment at 15.8% vs 16.2% in March Posted:

ZEW institute July German economic sentiment -15.1 vs -9.0 in June Posted: Weaker than median forecast of -12.4. On the plus side current condition index 90.6, up from 87.6 in June and better than median forecast of 85.0. ZEW says: Despite robust economic situation, public debt problems of some euro zone countries have dampened sentiment Economic and fiscal situation in the US watche with increasing concern

Spain treasury sells 3788 mln 12 mnth t-bills vs 3958 mln at previous auction Posted: Bid to cover ratio 2.2 vs 2.9 at previous auction Average yield 3.702% v 2.695% at previous auction Sells 661 mln in 18 month t-bills vs 1460 mln at previous auction Bid to cover ratio 5.5 vs 3.9 at previous auction Average yield 3.912% vs 3.260% at previous auction

Guess….. Posted: Market getting excited that because euro zone leaders got three options on the table they’re close to sorting out the Greek second bailout conundrum. Go figure. EUR/USD up at 1.4190. Sell orders clustered 1.4190/00 as mentioned earlier. Buy stops now seen through 1.4210. Are we stuck in a 1.40-1.4200 range, or are we readying for an [...]

EU officials examining 3 broad options to secure private sector role in 2nd Greek bailout package – Policy options paper Posted: First option would involve Greek debt buyback and credit enhancements for private sector, but would likely cause at least selective default Second option is based on French proposal, would offer no credit enhancements to private sector, sees no debt buyback Second option would also involve lowering of rates and lengthening of maturities on Greek EFSF [...]

EUR/USD extends rally Posted: EUR/USD has tripped stops through 1.4140 and 1.4155 and been as high as 1.4163. Presently back at 1.4150. Korea, Russia, Romania and UK clearer with strong Asian ties some of the names mentioned notable buyers on the way higher. Talk of decent sell orders lying in wait now up at 1.4190/00.

Rumour: European summit has been brought forward to Wednesday Posted: I’ll got out on a limb here and suggest this may not be true. There are times when I truly truly hate my job. Especially when technology contrives to make my life a living bloody hell. Anyways, seems some frigging idiots in the market may have gotten their wires crossed. Euro zone officials are to meet [...]

Germany eyes deal with swiss banks on taxes, Handelsblatt says Posted: Bloomberg article This story is said to be lending the EUR/CHF cross some support this morning. Presently up at 1.1610 from 1.1550 when I sat down.

Back to where we were… Posted: When I sat down, namely 1.4115. Good buying reportedly emerged out of Eastern Europe, following up on the ACB buying. Sean overnight mentioned buy stops through 1.4155, 1.4165 and 1.4190. You can add through 1.4140 to that list. Pretty darn congested if you ask me. Personally I’d have my stops above 1.4200. Well , that’s [...]

FX option expiries for todays 14:00 GMT cut Posted: EUR/USD: 1.3900, 1.4000, 1.4200 USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.30, 80.00 EUR/JPY: 110.00, 111.35, 113.0 EUR/GBP: 0.8735 AUD/USD: 1.0585, 1.0600 AUD/JPY: 84.80

EUR/USD steadies a little after early slide Posted: Presently at 1.4087 from session low 1.4068. I know you’re not going to believe this, but reports of ACB buying around the session lows. Go figure We got some short-dated t-bill auctions in Spain and Greece today. Whoopeeeeeee 08:30 GMT: Spain 12 and 18 month t-bills 09:15 GMT: Greece 3 month t-bills

ECB Nowotny: “Our Decision” What Kind Of Collateral To Accept Posted: LONDON (MNI) – Any form of a default by Greece would have grave consequences, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny told CNBC in an interview aired Tuesday. However, he underlined that what those consequences would be still needed careful examination. “There is a rather sophisticated, full range of options and opinions from full default, to [...]

Japan June Dept Sales +0.3% Y/Y; 1st Gain in Four Months Posted: TOKYO (MNI) – Department store sales in Japan posted the first year-on-year rise in four months in June, as consumer sentiment improved, data released by the Japan Department Store Association showed on Tuesday. Sales rose 0.3% y/y in June, following -2.4% in May, -1.5% in April, -14.7% in March and +0.7% in February. Besides improving [...]

EUR/USD extends slide Posted: Presently at 1.4075. Talk of sell stops through 1.4050. Euro zone data due today: 09:00 GMT: German ZEW economic sentiment for July expected -12.5 from -9.0; current situation expected 85.0 from 87.6 09:00 GMT: Euro zone ZEW economic sentiment for July expected -7.4 from -5.9 09:00 GMT: Euro zone construction output for May Eurostoxx futures [...]

China faces ‘sizeable bailout’ for banks – Standard Chartered Posted: Bloomberg reports that Standard Chartered, in an emailed report yesterday, warned that China’s central government faces a ‘sizeable bailout’ for banks and local governments due to borrowing by local government investment vehicles.

JAPAN DATA: Department store sales in Japan snapped.. Posted: JAPAN DATA: Department store sales in Japan snapped a third straight month of a year-on-year fall in June reflecting a recovery in consumer sentiment in the wake of the March 11 earthquake, data released by the Japan Department Store Association showed on Tuesday. Sales rose 0.3% last month following declines of 2.4% in May, 1.5% [...]

ECB’s Nowotny: Default would have very grave consequences Posted: Have to study range of options, some proposals deal with short-term selective default without major consequences The official told CNBC “There are some proposals that deal with a very short-lived selective default situation that would not really have major negative consequences” EUR/USD slips under 1.4100 presently at 1.4093.

Taking a punt on a short AUD/USD trade Posted: Dovish RBA is an important event which could change the way the market views the AUD The Chinese ratings agency statement that the AUD is not a safe-haven asset may also change some market perceptions re AUD Risk aversion is returning to the market, with bank stocks out of favour yesterday and today Whether the [...]

ForexLive Asian market wrap: RBA drops reference to tighter policy Posted: Latest RBA monetary policy meeting minutes released Slightly more dovish than expected with reference to tigher policy dropped Trichet reiterates warning against Greek default Moody’s may cut BNY Mellon and JP Morgan ratings Chinese ratings agency says AUD not a safe haven asset Stockmarkets fall by under 0.5% on average with bank stocks leading the [...]