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Aussie Surges above 1.1012 on Strong Inflation Data whilst the Buck Remains Weak BroadlyThe Australian dollar took the center stage this morning as aussie surged above previous high of 1.1012 to a fresh 29-year high of 1.1063 after the release of higher-than-expected Australian inflation data, Q2 CPI came in at 0.9% q/q and 3.6% y/y versus the forecast of 0.7% y/y and 3.4% y/y respectively, closely watched trimmed mean and weighted median numbers from RBA were also higher than market consensus. Traders were selling the greenback across the board anyway and aussie became an obvious choice, with the figure came in well above the inflation target of Reserve Bank of Australia, economists see the central bank may not cut rates as early as previously anticipated. Some offers at 1.1050 were absorbed but more offers from big Australian names are reported at 1.1080 and 1.1100 with bids from various parties tipped at 1.1000-10 and also 1.0950 with stops building up below 1.0950 and 1.0930. |
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AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0861; (P) 1.0915; (R1) 1.1009; More AUD/USD jumps to as high as 1.1062, making a new record. The break of 1.1011 resistance confirms up trend resumption. Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection 0.9703 to 1.1011 at 1.0390 at 1.1198 next. On the downside, below 1.0933 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained above 1.0789 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ To Leave OCR Unchanged At 2.5%, Acknowledge Stronger-Than-Expected Domestic DevelopmentsIt's almost certain that the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5% in July. While domestic economic developments have improved significantly since the last meeting, risks that global economic and financial conditions will surprise to the downside are still high. Meanwhile, strength in New Zealand dollar has been providing some tightening effects, thus reducing the urgency of an official rate hike. That being said, the more likely timing for an increase in interest rate would be in 4Q11. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4415Despite intra-day marginal rise to 1.4537 (yesterday’s high was 1.4526), as the single currency has retreated, suggesting consolidation below this level would take place and pullback to 1.4431-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4325-1.4537 and previous resistance) is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.4405-14), bring another rise later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.55Although the greenback has remained under pressure and marginal weakness to 77.50/55 is likely, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below there and risk has increased for a corrective rebound later, above the Kijun-Sen (now at 77.93) would bring test of the Ichimoku cloud (now at 78.30-32) but only break of resistance at 78.75 would signal a temporary low is in place, bring retracement of recent decline towards 79.05/10 later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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