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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Back Under Pressure after Brief RecoveryThe boost from Bin Laden's death to dollar was rather weak and brief. The greenback is back under some mild pressure against Euro and Aussie even though it's still staying above recent low for the moment. ISM manufacturing index dropped less than expected to 60.5 in April while price paid component edged higher to 85.5. Construction spending rose 1.4% mom in March. Other economic data released today saw Canadian IPPI and RMPI rose 0.9% mom and 5.7% mom in March respectively, both above expectation. Eurozone PMI manufacturing was revised higher to 58 in April. Swiss SVME PMI missed expectation and dropped to 58.4 in April while retail sales unexpectedly dropped -0.2% yoy in March. Australian TD securities inflation rose 0.3% mom in April, house price index dropped more than expected by -1.7% qoq in Q1. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 80.90; (P) 81.28; (R1) 81.51; More. No change in USD/JPY's outlook. With 82.75 resistance intact, fall from 85.51 is still expected to continue towards 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, though, break of 82.76 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has completed and would flip bias back for the upside for retesting this resistance instead. |
| Special Reports |
RBA To Leave Rates Unchanged. Revision In Growth And Inflation Forecasts ExpectedThe RBA will likely leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% on May 3 (Tuesday) despite accelerating inflationary pressures. Policymakers probably retain the view that the current monetary stance is 'mildly restrictive' and 'appropriate' given recent economic developments. Yet, rising inflation should trigger policymakers to resume tightening eventually. Another focus is the Monetary Policy Statement which will be released on Thursday. We expect to see modest downgrade on GDP growth forecasts but upward revision on inflation outlook. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.8750Dollar's rebound after holding above last week's low at 0.8626 and the doji with a relatively long lower shadow formed on the hourly chart suggest consolidation above there would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.8712) is seen but the upper Kumo (now at 0.8752) should limit upside, bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend downtrend to 0.8600 Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.4785Euro's rebound after intra-day fall to 1.4762 suggests the correction from last week's high at 1.4882 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for a retest of said resistance. Once this level is penetrated, this would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.4900/05 (1.236 times projection of 1.4494-1.4715 measuring from 1.4630), however, 1.4988 (1.618 times projection) would limit upside Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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