Action Insight Daily Report 5-19-11

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Lower on Risk Sentiments, Kiwi Boosted by Projected Budget Surplus

Risk appetite recovered overnight after FOMC minutes and positive sentiments carried on in Asian session today, sending dollar and yen mildly lower. Nevertheless, markets lacking clear direction. Aussie and Canadian dollar follow commodities and are firm. Kiwi is relatively stronger on projected budget surplus. But all are limited by near term resistance against the greenback. Euro also struggles to extend recent rebound with EUR/USD still limited below 1.4338 near term minor resistance. Sterling, on the other hand, is soft ahead of retail sales data.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.02; (P) 131.76; (R1) 132.76; More

GBP/JPY continues to stay in tight range above 130.27 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. on the downside, sustained break of 130.17 support will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed and further fall should then be seen towards retest of this low. On the upside, however, break of 134.00 will indicate that fall from 139.99 has possibly completed already. This will also reaffirm the case that rise from 122.40 is not completed. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen to 137.01 resistance for confirmation.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q1 P -0.90% -0.50% -0.30% -0.80%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 P -1.90% -1.90% -1.60%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar F -15.50% -15.10% -15.30%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar F -13.10% -- -12.90%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales inc Auto Fuel M/M Apr
0.80% 0.20%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Apr
2.50% 1.30%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel M/M Apr
0.80% 0.20%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Apr
2.20% 0.90%
9:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Maty
-- 8.8
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders May
-9 -11
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
420K 434K
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Apr
5.20M 5.10M
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Apr
0.10% 0.40%
14:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Survey May
20 18.5
14:30 CAD BoC Review
-- --
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
91B 70B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4175

Despite intra-day rise to 1.4308, as the single currency has retreated, suggesting consolidation would take place and below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4251) would bring retracement to yesterday’s low at 1.4195 but renewed buying interest should emerge above the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4167), bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend near term rise from 1.4049 for retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 1.4340

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 81.25

Despite yesterday’s retreat to 80.94, as the greenback found renewed buying interest just around the Ichimoku cloud bottom and has risen again, retaining our near term bullishness for the rise from 79.57 to extend further gain to 82.00-10, however, reckon 82.55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 85.53 to 79.57) would hold from here due to near term overbought condition.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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