Sterling Consolidates ahead of BoE Minutes

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Daily Report: Sterling Consolidates ahead of BoE Minutes

Sterling remains in tight range as traders await BoE meeting minutes. Yesterday's strong CPI reading was not enough to provide sustained boost for the pound. The minutes are expected to be similar to what was seen in April. That is, three of the nine policy makers would have voted for rate hike to tame inflation, with Sentance continuing his vote for 50bps hike while Dale and Weale voted for 25bps. Posen, the dove, could could have voted for expansion in the asset purchase program. At the moment, markets are fully pricing in the first rate hike from BoE in December and over 90% change of hike in November. But such expectation could change from time to time. Though, it'll need something drastic from the BoE minutes to turn the trend in Sterling today. Otherwise, it's more vulnerable to the downside against dollar as risk aversion continues.

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GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6182; (P) 1.6242; (R1) 1.6311; More.

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and recovery from 1.6146 could extend further. But after all, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.6515 resistance holds and further decline is still in favor. Below 1.6146 will resume the whole fall from 1.6744 and target a test on 1.5935 key near term support next.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q1 1.70% 0.60% 0.90%
22:45 NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q1 2.20% 0.50% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Mar -6.00% -5.80% 0.80% 1.00%
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence May -1.30% -- 1.20%
1:30 AUD Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q1 0.80% 1.10% 1.00%
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Apr
0.0K 0.7K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Apr
4.50% 4.50%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Mar
7.80% 7.80%
8:30 GBP BoE Meeting Minutes
-- --
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Apr
0.60% 0.80%
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Mar
1.20% -0.60%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
-- 3.8M
18:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
-- --
Forex Trade Ideas

Remark: No update on Candlestick and Ichimoku Trade Idea tomorrow, next update will be made on Thursday 19 May.

Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

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