Euro Rebounds on Chinese Interest in Bailout Bonds, Dollar Lost Steam

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Daily Report: Euro Rebounds on Chinese Interest in Bailout Bonds, Dollar Lost Steam

Euro got a boost from news that China is interested in buying "bailout bonds" for Portugal and rebounded broadly. On the other hand, the greenback is under some pressure as commodity also recovered where crude oil and gold are trading firm above 100 and 1500 levels respectively. The dollar index is showing sign of reversal currently but there is no confirmation yet. The development for the next few trading days could mark the end of dollar's rebound and resumption of down trend.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8685; (P) 0.8749; (R1) 0.8791; More.

USD/CHF's drops further to as low as 0.8694 so far today as decline from 0.8945 extends. Intraday bias remains on the downside for a retest on 0.8552 low first. As noted before, the pair is is staying well inside near term falling channel. Break of 0.8852 will confirm down trend resumption and should send USD/CHF through 61.8% projection of 0.9339 to 0.8552 from 0.8945 at 0.8459 to 100% projection at 0.8158. On the upside, break of 0.8891 is needed to invalidate this view or we'll stay bearish.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Apr -0.80% -1.00% -1.20%
6:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Apr
0.70% 1.10%
6:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Apr
2.05B 1.09B
7:15 CHF Employment Level Q1
4.10M 4.09M
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q1 S
2.20% 1.80%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 S
1.90% 1.90%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
400K 409K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
93B 92B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.8810

As the greenback has remained under pressure after breaking last week's low at 0.8747, bearishness remains for the fall from 0.8947 top to bring a stronger retracement of recent upmove to previous support at 0.8708, then towards 0.8677, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside and reckon 0.8645/50 (1.236 times projection of 0.8947 to 0.8747 measuring from 0.8895) would hold from here, bring rebound later this week.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD –Buy at 1.6230

Although the British pound broke above resistance at 1.6304-05 to as high as 1.6336 earlier today, as cable has retreated and broke below the Tenkan-Sen, suggesting consolidation would be seen and retracement to 1.6255/60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6132 to 1.6336) but renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.6230-35 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and 50% Fibonacci retracement), bring another rise later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

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Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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