Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-12-11

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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Extends Rebound as Commodities Selloff Resumes

Dollar's rebound extends further today as another round of selloff in commodities start. The CRB commodity index has already breached last week's spike low with silver breaking last week's low of 33.03 to as low as 32.30 so far. Crude oil and gold are both set to drop further to resume last week's steep decline. Dollar index rose to as high as 75.65 so far as EUR/USD breaks key near term support at 1.4157. Equities are also soft with major European indices down more than 1% while US futures point to lower open.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4101; (P) 1.4262 (R1) 1.4352; More.

EUR/USD's fall is still in progress and dips to as low as 1.4122 so far today. While further decline is still in favor, focus remains on whether 1.4157 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.4938 at 1.4149) would hold eventually. Strong rebound form the current level and break of 1.4422 minor resistance will retain the bullish outlook and flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4938 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.4157 will indicate that whole rise from 1.2873 is finished and should bring deeper decline towards medium term channel at 1.3445 instead.

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Special Report

BOE See Growth Deteriorate, Inflation Remain Elevated In The Near-Term

The BOE unveiled in its quarterly inflation report that economic growth will likely deteriorate in the medium-term. Inflation will likely rise to +5% later this year and will stay above 2% throughout 2012. In the longer-term, the central bank believes inflation will eventually return to its target in 2013.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index Apr 51.5 50.1 50.2
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Apr 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.60%
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Mar 0.75T 1.02T 1.21T 1.22T
01:30 AUD Employment Change Apr -22.1K 17.0K 37.8K 43.3K
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Apr 4.90% 4.90% 4.90%
06:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Apr 28.3 24.3 27.7
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Apr 32.30% 49.60%
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Mar 0.30% 0.80% -1.20%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 0.70% 1.10% 2.40%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Mar 0.20% 0.30% 0.00%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar 2.70% 2.80% 4.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar -0.20% 0.30% 0.50% 0.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 5.30% 6.30% 7.50% 7.70%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Mar 0.00% 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 434K 430K 474K
12:30 USD PPI M/M Apr 0.80% 0.60% 0.70%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Apr 6.80% 6.50% 5.80%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Apr 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Apr 2.10% 2.10% 1.90%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Apr 0.50% 0.60% 0.40% 0.90%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Apr 0.60% 0.60% 0.80% 1.20%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Apr 0.40% 0.50%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 69B 72B
GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Apr 0.70%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4110

Although euro has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.4123, break of resistance at 1.4235 is needed to signal a temporary low is possibly formed and bring test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4254), then towards 1.4300, otherwise, near term downside risk remains for the decline from 1.4940 top to bring marginal weakness to 1.4100/10 (50% projection of 1.4900 to 1.4254 to 1.4423 and 50% projection of 1.4423-1.4172 measuring from 1.4235) before prospect of a rebound due to loss of downward momentum.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Made over 270 points profit and Sell again at 1.0820

Despite yesterday's brief rise to 1.0889, the subsequent anticipated retreat has reinforced our view that top has been formed at 1.1012 and aussie dropped to as low as 1.0585 today, our short position entered at 1.0875 met indicated downside target at 1.0600 with 275 points profit. This selloff signals the recovery from 1.0537 has indeed ended at 1.0889 as b leg and bearishness remains for a test of said support at 1.0537

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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