GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

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Daily Report: Focus Turns to BoE Inflation Report

Extended recovery in commodities lift Aussie and Loonie today and send yen and swissy mildly lower. Dollar on the other hand, continue to stay in tight range against Euro and Sterling for the moment. European debt crisis will take a backseat for now as focus will turn to BoE quarterly inflation report, which the bank will reveal new growth and inflation projections. Markets' pricing of BoE hike has been extremely volatile over the last few months. Today's report would likely reshape markets expectations and should provide good opportunity for near term trade in Sterling, in particular against Euro.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.70; (P) 132.09; (R1) 132.74; More

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook. Further decline is still in favor with 134.23 minor resistance intact. And, focus remains on 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Decisive break there will suggest that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. Meanwhile, strong support from 130.00/17 and rebound will retain the bullish case that rise from 122.40 is still in progress. Above 134.23 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside and break of 137.01 will bring retest of 139.99 high.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY Leading Index Apr 99.5 99.8 104.2
06:00 EUR German CPI M/M Apr 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
06:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Apr 2.40% 2.40% 2.40%
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Mar
-7.4B -6.8B
09:30 GBP BoE Quarterly Inflation Report



12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Mar
0.5B 0.0B
12:30 USD Trade Balance Mar
-46.6B -45.8B
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
1.1M 3.4M
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Apr
-$63.8B -$188.2B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD –Buy at 1.6305

Although the British pound rebounded after yesterday's retreat from 1.6422 to 1.6317, break of said resistance is needed to add credence to our view that a temporary low has possibly been formed at 1.6270 earlier on Monday and bring a stronger correction of entire fall from 1.6747 top to next resistance at 1.6464 later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 80.20

Although the greenback rose to 81.10 this morning, as dollar has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 81.19-20 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 82.82 to 79.57), suggesting consolidation would take place, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 80.55) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would suggest the entire decline from 85.53 top has possibly ended at 79.57 last week

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights



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