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Daily Report: Aussie Tumbles on Commodity Selloff, Euro Firm ahead of ECBFunds continue to flow back into yen and swissy franc on selloff in commodities. USD/CHF dropped to new record low of 0.8552 overnight while USD/JPY also extends recent decline to new post intervention low. Silver led the selloff in commodities this week, where it nearly touched 50 last week and it's now trading below 40. Gold and others followed and dragged the CRB commodity index down from this week's high of 370.72 to below 360 level now. Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie are all down this week with Kiwi being the weakest in spite of solid employment data. On the other hand, Euro and Sterling remain relatively firm ahead of ECB and BoE rate decision, as supported by strong buying in commodity crosses. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0686; (P) 1.0781; (R1) 1.0833; More AUD/USD's decline from 1.1010 extends further to as low as 1.0693 so far. The sustained trading below the near term rising trend line indicates that a short term top is formed on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD after hitting 1.1 psychological level. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for deeper pull back to 1.0388/0581 support zone. On the upside, above 1.0876 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But consolidations would likely extend further as long as 1.1010 resistance holds. |
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| Special Reports |
ECB: Vigilant Or Not?While the ECB is widely expected to leave the main refinancing rate at 1.25% in May, the focus is on the accompanying statement and the press conference as clues on the next rate hikes may be provided. Although President Trichet had said after April's rate hike that policymakers 'did not decide today that it was the first in a series of interest rate increases', recent economic developments and comments from ECB members suggested that further tightening later in the year is highly likely. The market will probably search for the 'vigilant' language in the statement as it signals a rate hike in the coming meeting. Our bottom line is that the next rate hike will be in July but a raise in June cannot be ruled out should inflationary pressures accelerate faster than anticipated. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.8650Although the greenback has retreated after intra-day rebound to 0.8624, break of yesterday's low at 0.8554 is needed to confirm recent decline has once again resumed and extend weakness towards 0.8500/05 (61.8% projection of 0.8835-0.8595 measuring from 0.8650), otherwise, further consolidation would take place and another corrective bounce to 0.8647-50 (current level o the Ichimoku cloud top and yesterday's high) cannot be ruled out but resistance at 0.8674 should hold, bring another decline Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 80.10Although the greenback has remained under pressure after meeting renewed selling interest at 81.19 yesterday and weakness towards the psychological support at 80.00 cannot be ruled out, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 79.79 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 76.25 to 85.53) and bring rebound later. Above the Kijun-Sen would suggest a temporary low is possibly formed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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