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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Jumps as BoE Raised Inflation ForecastsSterling jumps sharply today as BoE raised it's inflation forecasts in the quarterly inflation report. The report projected that UK inflation would likely hit 5% in 2011 and stay above it's 2% target throughout 2012. In the longer-term, the central bank believes inflation will eventually return to its target in 2013. The forecast is based on assumption of a rate hike in Q3 and then a rise in each quarter of 2012. Market prices of next BoE rate hike from January next year before the report to December after the report, with 94% chance of hike in November. BoE Governor King noted that the "recent pattern of revisions to the projections over the next year -- downward to growth and upward to inflation -- has continued." |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 131.70; (P) 132.09; (R1) 132.74; More GBP/JPY's strong rebound from 130.88 today suggests that correction from 139.99 might be completed at 130.88, ahead of mentioned 130.17 cluster support (100% projection of 139.99 to 132.98 from 137.01 at 130.00). Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment. Break of 134.23 minor resistance will affirm this case and target 137.01. Further break there should resume rebound from 122.40 to 139.99 and above. On the downside, we'd still favor the case of further rally as long as 130.17 cluster support holds. Nevertheless, decisive break of 130.17 will indicate that whole rebound from 122.40 has completed already and will bring deeper fall to retest this low. |
| Special Report |
BOE See Growth Deteriorate, Inflation Remain Elevated In The Near-TermThe BOE unveiled in its quarterly inflation report that economic growth will likely deteriorate in the medium-term. Inflation will likely rise to +5% later this year and will stay above 2% throughout 2012. In the longer-term, the central bank believes inflation will eventually return to its target in 2013. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD –Buy at 1.6425Although the British pound has eased from 1.6518, cable's intra-day rally on hawkish BOE inflation report adds credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 1.6270 earlier this week and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 1.6544 but reckon resistance at 1.6575-85 would hold from here. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold short entered at 1.0875Although the Australian dollar has continued to edge higher, if our view a temporary top has been formed at 1.1012 is correct, upside would be limited to 1.0900 and bring retreat later, a break of yesterday's low at 1.0736 would suggest the rebound from 1.0537 has possibly ended and bring weakness to 1.0660/65, below there would confirm this view and another fall towards said support would follow. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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