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Daily Report: Dollar Recovers on Bin Laden NewsDollar recovers mildly today on news that Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden was killed by a US led operation on Sunday in a firefight in Pakistan. The news was confirmed by US President Barack Obama. The demise of Bin Laden, who masterminded a series of attacks on US including the 911 attack, may hamper the coordination of terrorist organizations and reduce recruitment by his network and other groups. The news is seen lessening worries over terrorism and provides some support to the oversold dollar. Dollar index edged to new three year low of 72.81 but recovered as the Asian session went on. Nevertheless, overnight bearish outlook in the greenback remains unchanged and we'd still expect further decline ahead after some brief consolidations and recovery. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9469; (P) 0.9494; (R1) 0.9525; More. USD/CAD recovers mildly today but after all, near term outlook in USD/CAD will remain bearish as long as 0.9757 resistance holds. Current decline is part of the larger down trend and should now target 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 first. Break there will pave the way to key support level at 0.9056, which is close to 0.9 psychological level. |
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RBA To Leave Rates Unchanged. Revision In Growth And Inflation Forecasts ExpectedThe RBA will likely leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% on May 3 (Tuesday) despite accelerating inflationary pressures. Policymakers probably retain the view that the current monetary stance is 'mildly restrictive' and 'appropriate' given recent economic developments. Yet, rising inflation should trigger policymakers to resume tightening eventually. Another focus is the Monetary Policy Statement which will be released on Thursday. We expect to see modest downgrade on GDP growth forecasts but upward revision on inflation outlook. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.8750Despite this morning's brief drop to 0.8627, as the greenback has rebounded after holding above last week's low at 0.8626, a doji with a relatively long lower shadow is formed on the hourly chart, suggesting consolidation above there would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.8631) is seen but the upper Kumo (now at 0.8762) should limit upside, bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy again at 1.4785Although the single currency has retreated on Friday after faltering below last week's high at 1.4882, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4757) would limit downside and bring another rebound later. A break of said resistance at 1.4882 would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.4900/05 (1.236 times projection of 1.4494-1.4715 measuring from 1.4630), however, 1.4988 (1.618 times projection) would limit upside Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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