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USD/CHF Drops to Record Low on Renewed Safe-Haven DemandThe greenback is hovering near record low against the Swiss franc formed yesterday at 0.7733 on safe-haven demand, the Swiss franc itself also surged to a record high versus the single currency above 1.1000 (where option barrier was triggered) to all time high of 1.0985. Investors found both U.S. and eurozone have serious debt problems and even U.S. just passed the U.S. debt ceiling bill in the House of Reps by 269-161, concerns remain over the U.S. top credit rating will face an inevitable downgrade by major rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's and Moody's. At the same times, rising bond yields in Italy and Spain reflected that investors are still not convinced the second Greek bailout package is sufficient to stop the debt crisis from spreading to the two countries which raised safe-haven demand. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7725; (P) 0.7839; (R1) 0.7947; More... Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and current fall is expected to continue to 161.8% projection of 0.8519 to 0.8081 from 0.8277 at 0.7568 next. On the upside, above 0.7855 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again. But after all, recovery should be limited by 0.8081 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Stands Aside Despite Concerns About InflationThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. While this was the consensus forecast, a handful of analysts had anticipated a rate hike while some expected a cut. The split reflected the uncertainty in Australia's economy which is facing both the risk of slowdown and the threat of higher inflation. Apart from domestic economic developments, the central bank's decision was also affected by debt problems in the US and Eurozone. While policymakers in both sides of the Atlantic have agreed on measures that helped alleviate near-term concerns, long-term plans are still unavailable to solve the core problems – to lower deficits. ECB To Stand Aside In August But Will Continue To 'Monitor' Price Stability 'Very Closely'As economic and sentiment data released since the last meeting have weakened, the ECB will put more focus on the downside risk in economic growth in the August meeting. Therefore, we believe the central bank will keep the main refinancing rate at 1.5% and non-standard measures unchanged. In the accompanying statement, the ECB will reiterate that it will 'monitor very closely' on the upside risks to price stability but should not signal any rate hike in the next meeting. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6365Despite intra-day brief breach of 1.6238, lack of follow through selling and current rebound from 1.6224 suggest consolidation above this level would take place and retracement to 1.6300 and possibly intra-day high of 1.6329 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.6368) would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend decline from yesterday’s high of 1.6477 for a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.6195-00 Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 0.9635Although the greenback has continued to edge higher and the corrective rise from 0.9407 (formed last week) may bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 0.9635-38 (previous resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9780 to 0.9407), reckon renewed selling interest would emerge there and bring another decline later. A break of yesterday’s low at 0.9492 would suggest the rebound from 0.9407 has possibly ended and bring test of 0.9458 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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