Euro Retreats on Risk Aversions and Weakness in Global Stock Markets

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Euro Retreats on Risk Aversions and Weakness in Global Stock Markets

Despite initial brief rise in euro in reaction to downgrade of U.S. AAA rating by Standard & Poor's over the weekend, the single currency then retreated sharply in Asian and European sessions on massive risk aversions due to further weakness in global stock markets. Major Asian indices (including Nikkei and Hang Seng) fell over 2% after Friday's selloff, European indices are all down as well with DAX currently dropped over 3%, followed by FTSE-100 (-2.2%) and STOXX 50 (-1.67%), Dow futures is still down over 200 points and traders expect big drop when NYSE opens. Early boost from ECB buying Spanish and Italian government bonds also seen fading out, the central bank said over the weekend that it would actively implement its bond-buying program and the news did lift some peripheral bond prices, pushed the bond yields down by 80 basis points.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4121; (P) 1.4209 (R1) 1.4364; More.

EUR/USD's rebound form 1.4054 lacks follow through buying and weakens sharply into early US session. the break of 1.4239 minor support mixes up near term outlook and we'll turn neutral first. On the upside, note again that break of 1.4537 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of rebound from 1.3837, or more consolidative trading would be seen. on the downside, below 1.4054 will bring another fall to test 1.3837 support.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Jun 0.92T 0.96T 0.39T
5:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Jul 52.6 50 49.6
5:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Jul 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Aug -13.5 3.4 5.3
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.7545

As the greenback has staged a quick rebound after intra-day brief fall to fresh record low of 0.7480, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 0.7699-09) would be seen, however, Friday’s high of 0.7740 should limit upside and resistance at 0.7801 should remain intact.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4295

Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.4432, the subsequent sharp retreat after failing to test previous resistance at 1.4454 suggest the rebound from 1.4055 has possibly ended at 1.4432 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for a test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4146) but a sustained breach below there is needed to confirm this view and extend weakness to 1.4100 later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights



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