Swiss Franc Posts Biggest Weekly Lost on Worries of SNB Drastic Actions

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Swiss Franc Posts Biggest Weekly Lost on Worries of SNB Drastic Actions

Swiss franc dropped again after posting the biggest single day fall against the euro and dollar yesterday as traders still looked to cover their long franc positions in wake of recent comments from SNB officials. More and more traders expect the Swiss National Bank will take drastic measures (including EUR/CHF peg and negative rates on offshore deposit) to curb strength in Swiss franc. Some banks and investment houses were seen recommending their clients to start building long position in USD/CHF mostly through call options (decent demand seen for 2-week 0.8000 calls) as they see the currency pair has already or is about to form a bottom.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 76.36; (P) 76.83; (R1) 77.32; More.

With 77.32 minor resistance intact, fall from 80.23 is still expected to continue and break of 76.28 support will resume the whole decline from 85.51 and should target 100% projection of 81.46 to 76.28 from 80.23 at 75.05 next. On the upside, above 77.32 minor resistance will bring recovery. But we'll stay cautiously bearish as long as 80.23 resistance holds.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:30 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.00% 0.30% 0.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jun -0.70% 0.00% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jul 0.50% 0.50% 0.10%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jul 0.50% 0.20% 0.00%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Aug P 54.9 63 63.7
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jun 0.30% 0.60% 1.00%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Look to buy lower

Although the greenback has resumed this week’s rally from 0.7068 to as high as 0.7767, as price has retreated from there, suggesting consolidation would take place and pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7658) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7574) and intra-day support at 0.7548 should hold, bring another upmove later. A break of said resistance would extend the move from 0.7068 to previous resistance at 0.7801 later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.55

As the greenback has continued to edge lower, suggesting a retest of yesterday’s low at 76.30 cannot be ruled out and record low at 76.25 needs to hold to retain near term bullishness for another rebound, break of resistance at 77.23 (yesterday’s high) would signal a temporary low is formed an bring retracement of recent decline towards resistance at 77.86 but price should falter well below previous support at 78.30.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights



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