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Euro Weak on Dovish Trichet Whilst USD/JPY Despite Rumors of Another InterventionAfter staging a strong rise yesterday against the Japanese yen on intervention Bank of Japan on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, the greenback turned south since overnight U.S. session as the currency pair ran into heavy offers from Japanese exporters and funds above 80.00 level. Although the pair jumped again this morning in Tokyo as MOF Noda repeated Japan was closely watching the forex and stock market and the nation is communicating with European and U.S. officials on its action on the forex market, retail investors quickly sold USD/JPY again and pressed the dollar back down to its launching pad. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0631; (P) 1.0885; (R1) 1.1018; More EUR/CHF's downtrend resumed by taking out 1.0794 temporary low and drops to new record low of 1.0707. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further fall should now be seen towards 161.8% projection of 1.2344 to 1.1404 from 1.1891 at 1.0372 next. On the upside, though, note that break of 1.1148 resistance will suggest short term bottoming and will bring lengthier consolidations before extending the down trend. |
| Special Reports |
Dollar Jumped as Markets Avoided Swiss Franc and Yen on Massive Risk Selloff, NFP NextRisk aversion dominated the markets today on worries that US would re-enter into recession while fear of contagion in European debt crisis persisted. DOW plummeted -512 pts, or -4.31%, the largest decline since the 2008 financial crisis. S&P 500 dropped -4.78% while Nasdaq was down -5.07%. All these three major indices are closed more than 10% below the yearly high set in early May. The CRB commodity index dropped -2.77% and is back below 328 level, and is now facing 326.88 2011 low. Crude oil followed and was down -6% and reached as low as 86.04. 2-year yield dived to record low while longer term yield, 10 year yield dropped to 2.458% (down -0.141%), and 30 year yield dropped to 3.72% (down -0.151%). So in short, markets panicked. ECB Extends Liquidity Injection, Reactivates SMPThe ECB voted unanimously to keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1.5%. In the accompanying statement, the central bank also announced some liquidity injection measures. The most important news was that President Trichet signaled the Securities Market Program (SMP) has been re-activated. Concerning the monetary policy outlook, the ECB reiterated that it will monitor very closely all developments with respect to upside risks to price stability. This suggested no rate hike in the next meeting.
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4170Although the single currency tumbled to as low as 1.4055, as euro has recovered from there and broke above the Tenkan-Sen, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and retracement to 1.4143 (previous support) is seen, however, upside should be limited to 1.4177 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4375-1.4055) and the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4193) should hold, bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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