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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
USD/CHF Drops to Another record Low on Risk of U.S. Downgrade Whilst GBP/USD Tumbles as Manufacturing PMI Falls Below 50Despite staging a brief rebound from record low against the Swiss franc earlier today, the greenback ran into heavy selling pressure and tumbled again to another record low on renewed worries that rating agencies may downgrade U.S. top credit rating even the bill is passed in Congress. Whilst the vote is counting in congress for the bill to pass for a US$2.4 trillion deficit cut in 10 years plus raising the debt ceiling, investors are starting to doubt that this bill may not be enough to avoid a possible downgrade of the nation's AAA credit rating. Fresh round of safe-haven flows and thin market conditions (U.S. investment banks and real money accounts were seen buying Swiss franc) pushed the Swiss franc sharply higher to another historical peak against the greenback and option barriers at 0.7800 and 0.7780 are in focus with next triggers seen at 0.7720 and 0.7700. On the upside, offers are lined up from 0.7850 up to 0.7900 with more selling interest tipped at 0.7950 (stops above 0.7960). |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.7794; (P) 0.7912; (R1) 0.7975; More... USD/CHF's decline resumes after brief recovery and reaches new record low of 0.7815 in early US session. Intraday bias is back on the downside for medium term projection level at 0.7797. Break will target 161.8% projection of 0.8519 to 0.8081 from 0.8277 at 0.7568 in near term. On the upside, above 0.7952 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again. But after all, recovery should be limited by 0.8081 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption. |
| Special Reports |
ECB To Stand Aside In August But Will Continue To 'Monitor' Price Stability 'Very Closely'As economic and sentiment data released since the last meeting have weakened, the ECB will put more focus on the downside risk in economic growth in the August meeting. Therefore, we believe the central bank will keep the main refinancing rate at 1.5% and non-standard measures unchanged. In the accompanying statement, the ECB will reiterate that it will 'monitor very closely' on the upside risks to price stability but should not signal any rate hike in the next meeting. RBA To Leaves Cash Rate At 4.75% After Balancing Growth And Inflation RisksThe less-than-expected moderation in 2Q11 inflation in Australia reduced bets that the RBA will cut interest rates in coming months. It also triggered some analysts to forecast the central bank will adopt a rate hike as soon as in August. In our opinion, the central bank will pause for another month, leaving the cash rate at 4.75% as domestic economy is facing the risk of slowdown while debt problems in the US and Eurozone remain unresolved. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6420Despite staging an intra-day rebound in London morning, as cable has retreated sharply after faltering below indicated resistance at 1.6477, suggesting top has been formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for test of 1.6344-46 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6261-1.6477 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) but break of the lower Kumo (now at 1.6317) is needed to confirm Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4345Despite intra-day rise to 1.4454, as the single currency has retreated, suggesting consolidation below this level would take place and below the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.4392) would bring retracement to 1.4341-47 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and intra-day support), however, the lower Kumo (now at 1.4319) should hold, bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend gain from last week’s low of 1.4230 towards 1.4490/00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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