Euro Slips on Dovish Comments from ECB Trichet

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Euro Slips on Dovish Comments from ECB Trichet

The greenback extended intra-day BOJ inspired rally and rose against the Japanese yen for almost 4 percent to as high as 80.25 as MOF continued intervening the currency market to sell Japanese yen (believed to be 3 times so far), traders noted constant yen selling by Japanese authorities in London session, offers by exporters at 79.50 were easily filled and indicated stops at 80.00-10 were triggered, however, the currency pair then retreated after running into heavy offers from Japanese exporters, Asian central banks, hedge funds and margin traders.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7610; (P) 0.7699; (R1) 0.7790; More...

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.7608 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Another recovery cannot be ruled out yet, possibly to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.7904). But still, we'd still expect recovery to be limited below 0.8081 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 0.7608 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8519 to 0.8081 from 0.8277 at 0.7568. Break will target 200% projection at 0.7401.

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Special Reports

BOJ Extends Size Of Asset Purchase Program After Currency Intervention

The Bank of Japan extended monetary easing by increasing the size of its asset purchase program. The size of the program is risen by +10 trillion yen to 50 trillion yen. Meanwhile, policymakers also voted unanimously to leave the uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0-0.1%. The market had broadly anticipated the move as the central bank moved the meeting one day ahead and intervened in the currency market to curb yen's appreciation after SNB's action.

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SNB Goes For Quantitative Easing As Franc Appreciates Sharply

The SNB surprised the market by announcing it narrowed the target range for the 3-month Libor from 0.00-0.75% to 0.00- 0.25% and is aiming to lower it to 'as close to zero as possible'. Moreover, the central bank will 'very significantly increase the supply of liquidity to the Swiss franc money market over the next few days'. The unexpected move has been driven by the sharp appreciation in CHF as investors fled to safe-haven assets.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q2 6.50% 6.50% 6.60% 6.50%
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q2 0.00% 0.00% 1.40% 1.30%
05:00 JPY BoJ Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Jun 1.80% -0.20% 1.80% 1.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B 200B
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference



12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 400K 406K 398K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage
39B 43B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.7655

As the greenback has retreated after intra-day rise to 0.7801, suggesting consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.7709) cannot be ruled out, however, as temporary low has been formed at 0.7610, downside should be limited to yesterday’s low of 0.7636, bring another rebound later. A break of said resistance would bring retracement of recent decline to 0.7829

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 0.9610

As recent rise from 0.9407 gathered momentum, suggesting the wave 5 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further gain towards resistance at 0.9780, however, break there is needed to add credence to this view and extend further gain towards 0.9845/50 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0286-0.9407) but price should falter well below resistance at 0.9914 and bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

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