Greenback Drops across the Board on Disappointment of FOMC

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Greenback Drops across the Board on Disappointment of FOMC

The greenback nose-dived against the invincible Swiss franc for over 500 points or 6% yesterday to a record low of 0.7068 and selling gathered momentum after disappointment on the Federal Reserve announcement. The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected and only pledged to keep interest rates near zero until 2013, although the committee indicated they are noted that economic growth has slowed considerably, no word was mentioned on the implementation of QE3. Some traders sold dollar immediately as they found the statements with no surprises, the greenback was down across the board with EUR/USD surged to 1.4398 and cable also rebounded from low of 1.6176 to 1.6336 overnight.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6983; (P) 0.7288; (R1) 0.7509; More...

USD/CHF's decline extends to new record low of 0.7065 so far, meeting mentioned target of 261.8% projection of 0.8519 to 0.8081 from 0.8277 at 0.7130. Intraday bias remains on the downside with 0.7361 minor resistance intact and further fall should now be seen to medium term target of 138.2% projection of 1.1730 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.6931 which is close to 0.7 psychological level. Above 0.7361 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

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Fed Keeps Interest Rates Low Until 2013, Maintains Reinvestment Policy

The Fed delivered a much more dovish policy statement in August as the path of recovery has been 'considerably slower than expected'. As a prelude to additional easing, the central bank pledged for the first time that interest rates will stay at exceptionally low levels at least until mid-2013 and reinvestment of maturing proceeds will be maintained. Wall Street rebounded after the report as investors looked forward for additional stimulus in coming meetings.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BOJ Minutes



23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jun 1.90% 1.10% 0.90% 0.80%
23:50 JPY Domestic CPI Y/Y Jul 2.90% 2.60% 2.50%
0:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence M/M Aug -3.50%
-8.30%
2:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Jul $31.50B $27.40B $22.27B
6:00 EUR German CPI M/M Jul F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Jul F 2.40% 2.40% 2.40%
9:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report



14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jun
1.00% 1.80%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories
1.7M 1.0M
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Jul
-140.3B -43.1B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55

As the greenback has remained under pressure, suggesting the fall from last week’s high of 80.25 is still in progress and weakness to 76.50/55 is likely, however, still record the record low at 76.25 would hold form here and bring rebound later. Above the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 77.54) would suggest low is possibly formed but break of indicated resistance at 77.86 is needed to confirm and bring a stronger rebound towards 78.24-30 (current level of the upper Kumo and previous support).

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

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Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights



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