Dollar Broadly lower on Expectations Fed May Take Actions in Sept

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Dollar Broadly lower on Expectations Fed May Take Actions in Sept

The greenback remained under broad-based selling pressure except against the Swiss franc after Friday's Jackson Hole central bankers gathering on speculation that Federal Reserve may take more monetary policy action next month. Although Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke provided no hints or details of any QE3 to support U.S. economic recovery last Friday in the central bank's annual symposium, he did say the central would extend its September FOMC meeting to 2-day to have more time for discussion on its options.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4383; (P) 1.4442 (R1) 1.4556; More.

EUR/USD's break of 1.4537 resistance is taking as the first signal that the pair is finally breaking out of recent consolidations. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 1.4695 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case and target 1.4939 high and above. On the downside, though, below 1.4328 minor support will dampen this bullish case and indicate that consolidation from 1.4939 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 1.4054 and below.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised

EUR German CPI M/M Aug P
0.00% 0.40%

EUR German CPI Y/Y Aug P

2.40%
12:30 USD Personal Income Jul
0.30% 0.10%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Jul
0.50% -0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jul
1.40% 2.60%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jul
0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jul
1.40% 1.30%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jul
0.00% 2.40%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 76.55

Failure to extend Friday’s rebound from 76.50 and the subsequent retreat aftet faltering below the Kijun-Sen suggest caution on our long position entered at 76.55 and indicated support at 76.47 needs to hold to retain our view that further consolidation would take place, mild upside bias remains for another rebound. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 76.92) would bring test of 77.07-09 (previous resistance and current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom) but break there is needed to suggest the retreat from 77.70 has ended

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4470

Current breach of previous resistance at 1.4537 suggests a possible upside break of early established broad range has taken place and a retest of previous resistance at 1.4580 (July) would be seen, however, break of this level is needed to confirm this view and extend the rise from 1.3838 to 1.4640/50 but near term overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter below previous resistance at 1.4696.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights



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