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Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovers as Banks Agree to Rollerover Greek Debts

Euro recovers mildly today on news that representatives of some of the world's largest banks from Germany, Holland, Belgium and France are discussing the way to rollover Greek debt maturing in the next three years. The roller over would form part of the second bailout package for Greece. According to Citigroup's estimation, European banks hold more than EUR 17b bonds maturing by end of 2013. Meanwhile, under recent discussions between French Banking Federation and the French Treasury, French lenders would reinvest around 70% of Greek bonds That would greatly help EU from achieve it's goal of rolling over at least EUR 30b of Greek bonds.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4117; (P) 1.4211 (R1) 1.4282; More.

EUR/USD drew some support from near term rising trend line and recovers today. A temporary low is formed at 1.4102 and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. The broader outlook remains unchanged as EUR/USD is possibly forming a triangle pattern inside converging range of 1.3969/4939. While below 1.4102 will bring another fall, eventual upside breakup is still in favor as long as 1.3969 support holds. On the upside, above 1.4441 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 1.4695 first. Further break there will be the first signal of up trend resumption for another high above 1.4939. However, break of 1.4073 will put focus on 1.3969 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) May 605M 1000M 1113M 1148M
12:30 USD Personal Spending May 0.00% 0.10% 0.40% 0.30%
12:30 USD Personal Income May 0.30% 0.40% 0.40% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Core M/M May 0.30% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y May 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% 1.10%
12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y May 2.50% 2.40% 2.20%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 80.30

Despite intra-day brief retreat, as the greenback has risen again in part due to dollar’s broad-based strength, retaining our mild upside bias for further gain to resistance at 81.08, however, break there is needed to turn outlook bullish for test of next resistance at 81.33 but upside should be limited to another chart resistance at 81.77.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 0.9780

As the greenback has risen after brief pullback and the breach of indicated resistance at 0.9899 add credence to our view that wave 4 is still in progress and stronger retracement of recent decline to 0.9930 and possibly previous resistance at 0.9975 would be seen but reckon psychological resistance at 1.0000 would hold from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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