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Daily Report: SNB on Hold, Risk Aversion DominatesEUR/CHF made another record low below 1.2 psychological level earlier today but recovers mildly after SNB kept rates unchanged as widely expected. The three month Libor range was held at 0-0.75% with the lower part of the target range at 0.25%. SNB noted that the Swiss economy continues to benefit from "robust" global demand in spite of Franc's strength. GDP growth projection was maintained at 2% in 2011. Nevertheless, the bank also noted "downside risks predominate", including Eurozone peripheral debt programs, fiscal consolidations and surge in commodity prices. Though, appreciation of Franc was highlighted as the main threat to Swiss economy. There is practically no change in EUR/CHF's bearish outlook after SNB's release and we'd expect the cross to continue to make new record lows ahead. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 80.54; (P) 80.80; (R1) 81.21; More. USD/JPY's recovery from 79.69 is currently viewed as the third led of consolidation from 79.56 and could still extend further higher. But even in that case, we'd expect upside to be limited by 50% retracement of 85.51 to 79.56 at 82.53 and bring resumption of fall from 85.51. Below 79.69 will suggest that such decline is likely resuming for 75.98 low finally. |
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SNB To Leave Rates Unchanged On Subdued Inflation And Slower GrowthThe SNB will likely leave interest rates at 0.25% at the June meeting. Economic data released over the past 2 weeks suggested both growth and inflation were mild in the country, indicating there's no need for policymakers to alter monetary policies for now. Moreover, elevated Swiss franc has also helped counter some of the stimulating effects of accommodative policies, further reducing the urgency of a rate hike. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6090Although cable has fallen again after intra-day brief recovery to 1.6225 and recent decline may extend one more fall to 1.6110/15 (100% projection of 1.6547-1.6215 measuring from 1.6443), loss of near term downward momentum should limit downside to 1.6088-92 (50% projection of 1.6443-1.6168 measuring from 1.6225 and 61.8% projection of 1.6383-1.6168 measuring from 1.6225) and bring rebound later. Above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.6185) would bring retracement to said resistance at 1.6225 but the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6262) should hold Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 80.45 or sell at 81.35Despite yesterday’s marginal rise to 81.08, as the greenback has retreated today, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and pullback towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 80.45) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rise later. Above said resistance would extend recent upmove from 79.69 to 81.26-33 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 82.23 to 79.69 and previous resistance) but loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside and bring retreat later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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