Greek Vote Eyed, Buy-The-Rumour-Sell-The-Fact For The EUR?

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Daily Report: Euro Firm ahead of Greece Vote, Risk Sentiments Recovered

Euro remains firm broadly in as investors are optimistic that Greek parliament will pass the austerity plan which is needed to secure funding from the EU/IMF. The Greek parliament will vote today on Prime Minister George Papandreou's 5-year plan of budget cuts and asset sales amid a wave of strikes and protests. Investors are increasingly more confident that the package will be passed and Greece will then be able to tap the 5th tranche of funding and avoid immediate default. Market sentiment was also bolstered on the news that German officials will meet with banks today, discussing their role in a rescue plan for Greece, with the French proposal as the base of discussion. The French government proposed that banks will roll over half of Greek debts maturing in the next 3 years into new 30-year bonds. Also, it proposed that the proceeds of an additional 20% of bonds to be invested in a SPV which would act as collateral for participating banks.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.56; (P) 116.11; (R1) 117.11; More

EUR/JPY's rebound from 113.49 extends further today and the break of 116.69 resistance, as well as the sustained trading above near term falling trend line, suggests that fall from 123.31 might be completed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 117.88 resistance first. Break will also complete a double bottom reversal pattern and should turn outlook bullish for a retest on 123.31 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 115.12 will flip bias back to the downside and break of 113.41/49 support will will resume the decline from 123.31 instead.

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Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M May P 5.70% 5.50% 1.60%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y May P -5.90% -6.30% -13.60%
8:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals May
46.3K 45.2K
8:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M May
1.30% 0.90%
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M May
0.30% 0.10%
8:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y May

-0.90%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun
-10 -10
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Jun
105 105.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jun
3.5 3.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Jun
9 9.2
9:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Jun
2.23 2.3
11:00 CAD CPI M/M May
0.30% 0.30%
11:00 CAD CPI Y/Y May
3.30% 3.30%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M May
0.20% 0.20%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y May
1.50% 1.60%
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M May
0.80% -11.60%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

-1.7M

EUR German CPI M/M Jun P
0.10% 0.00%

EUR German CPI Y/Y Jun P
2.30% 2.30%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.8375

As the greenback rebounded after yesterday’s selloff to 0.8276, suggesting consolidation would be seen and recovery to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 0.8349-57) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon this week’s high of 0.8386 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 0.8276 would extend downtrend to 0.8240/42 (50% projection of 0.8947-0.8327 measuring from 0.8552) but loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.8200

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4265

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone after rising to 1.4397 yesterday, adding credence to our near term bullishness for the rebound from 1.4103 to extend further gain to 1.4400 and possibly towards previous resistance at 1.4442, however, break there is needed to retain upside bias for further gain to 1.4458 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4696 to 1.4073) but reckon 1.4500 would hold from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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