Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Steady Despite ZEW Disappointment, Greece Confidence Vote Eyed

Euro stays firm in tight range today as traders are holding their bets ahead of Greece confidence vote. Must worse than expected German ZEW economic sentiment triggered some retreat but that was brief. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou must survive today's confidence vote as to secure backing for the new austerity measures to be approved on June 28. The new measures would involve a five year EUR 28b program and related privatization plan. After that, Eurozone finance ministers will approve the next tranche of the bailout fund of EUR 12b on July 3 for Greece to satisfy rollover payments of maturing debts in mid July and ease the short term situation till September. So today's confidence vote is a key step is stabilization market sentiments towards Eurozone and Euro.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4220; (P) 1.4273 (R1) 1.4357; More.

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains cautiously on the upside and further rise is still in favor to upper trend line resistance (now at 1.4593). Also, note that EUR/USD is possibly forming a triangle pattern inside converging range of 1.3969/4939. An upside break out will be mildly in favor as long as 1.3969 support holds. Further break of 1.4695 resistance will be the first signal of up trend resumption for another high above 1.4939. On the downside, though, below 1.4190 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Further break of 1.4073 will flip bias back to the downside for 1.3969 and below instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes



04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Apr 1.50% 1.80% -6.30%
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) May 15.2B 16.5B 7.7B
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Jun -9 -3 3.1
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) Jun 87.6 90 91.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Jun -5.9 6.1 13.6
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Jun 1 -5 -2
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M May 1.00% 0.50% 0.80%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M May 0.30% 0.40% 0.00%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M May 0.00% 0.60% -0.10%
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales May
4.80M 5.05M
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold short entered at 0.8460

Dollar’s intra-day sideways trading is likely to end soon and as the greenback has retreated after meeting renewed selling interest at the Ichimoku cloud bottom, bearishness remains for another test of yesterday’s low at 0.8408, break there would add credence to this view for the fall from 0.8552 to extend weakness towards support at 0.8348. Having said that, a break of this support is needed to confirm correction from 0.8327 has ended

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 116.50

Despite yesterday’s fall to 113.58, as the single currency has staged a strong rebound after holding above last week’s low at 113.51, suggesting near term upside risk has increased for correction to 116.20/25 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 117.90 to 113.51), however, reckon resistance at 116.69 would limit upside, bring another decline later. A break of said support at 113.51 would add credence to our view that early rebound from 113.41 to 117.90 was the x wave of the wave B correction

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

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