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Daily Report: Euro Strengthens Mildly as Markets Await Trichet's "Vigilance" as July Hike SignalEuro recovers mildly against dollar as markets are awaiting today's ECB rate decision and press conference. It's widely expected that ECB will keep rates unchanged at 1.25% but more importantly, Trichet is expected to use the words "strong vigilance" to signal a rate hike in July. Recent weak patch of data, including the unexpected moderation in inflation raised a little bit of doubt on ECB's rate path. But with CPI staying high above ECB's target at 2.7% yoy, the gradual tightening is still expected to continue. Another focus of the meeting is the new set of staff projections on outlook. We expect upward revisions on both growth and inflation forecasts. Confirmation of a July hike, as well as strong growth and inflation projections, will push EUR/USD through this week's high of 1.4695 towards 1.5 psychological level. BoE will also announce rate decision today but will likely be a non-event. |
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EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 115.90; (P) 116.87; (R1) 117.46; More EUR/JPY recovers mildly today but remains bounded in tight range of 115.76/117.88 so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and more sideway consolidations could still be seen. On the upside, above 117.88 will bring another rise towards near term falling trend line resistance (now at 118.37). Sustained trading above there will pave the way to 121.82 resistance. On the downside, below 115.76 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 113.39 support instead. |
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RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged, Statement Less HawkishThe RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. While the decision had been widely anticipated, the Australian dollar fell as the accompanying statement appeared to be more dovish than previous ones. Policymakers pointed out that employment growth moderated and investment intentions eased in past months. The July meeting will also be a 'non-event' in the sense that the policy rate will stay the same. However, we may see some changes of wordings in the statement signaling a rate hike in August. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Buy at 0.8830Despite intra-day brief rise to 0.8976, current retreat suggests consolidation below this resistance would take place and pullback to 0.8850/60 is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.8830-40 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8611 to 0.8976) and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend gain to 0.9000 but break there is needed to add credence to our view that retreat from 0.9043 has ended Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 0.9700Despite intra-day rebound to 0.9821, as the greenback has retreated again, retaining our view that further consolidation below last Friday's high of 0.9852 would be seen and pullback to 0.9700 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rise. A break of said resistance would add credence to our view that wave 3 has formed a low at 0.9446 and upside bias remains for retracement of recent decline in wave 4 to 0.9860/70 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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