Action Insight Daily Report 6-22-11

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Daily Report: Euro Retreats Mildly as Greece Survived Confidence Vote, BoE Minutes and FOMC Next

Euro retreats mildly today after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou finally won the confidence vote as a total of 155 lawmakers supported the motion, with only 143 voting against. The vote sealed the approval of the reshuffled cabinet, most notably with new Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos to push through the new austerity plan. Next step for Papandreou is to push the EUR 78b of austerity plan through the parliament. Then Eurozone finance ministers will approve the next tranche of the bailout fund of EUR 12b on July 3 for Greece to satisfy rollover payments of maturing debts in mid July and ease the short term situation till September. Technically, Euro's rebound against dollar, yen and sterling are losing steam and we might see a near term reversal soon as EUR/USD and EUR/GBP turns to a falling leg inside recent triangle pattern.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9682; (P) 0.9744; (R1) 0.9775; More.

USD/CAD's pullback from 0.9898 extends further to as low as 0.9705 so far and further fall could still be seen. But still, outlook is cautiously bullish with 0.9670 support intact and rebound from 0.9444 is still in favor to continue. Above 0.9775 will flip bias back to the upside and break of 0.9898 will target 0.9973 key resistance next (38.2% retracement of 1.0851 to 0.9444 at 0.9981). On the downside, however, break of 0.9670 will argue that rebound from 0.9444 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for this low and below.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Current Account Balance (NZD) Q1 -0.10B -3.903B -3.524B -3.63B
8:30 GBP BoE Minutes 2--0--7 3--0--6
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Apr 1.00% -1.80%
9:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Jun -11.5
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun -10.4 -9.8
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Apr -0.20% -0.30%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.1M -3.4M
16:30 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
18:15 USD Bernanke Press Conference
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6175

Despite cable’s intra-day breach of yesterday’s high of 1.6255, lack of follow through buying and current retreat from 1.6263 suggest consolidation would take place and pullback to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6204) cannot be ruled out, however, the lower Kumo (now at 1.6174) should limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from 1.6078 for a stronger retracement of recent decline towards 1.6300/05

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4315

Despite yesterday’s rise to 1.4435, as the single currency has retreated, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.4313-14 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4191 to 1.4435 and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) but renewed buying interest should emerge there, bring another rise later. Above said resistance would extend the rise from 1.4073 to 1.4458 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4696-1.4073)

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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