Intraday bias

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Daily Report: Euro Lower as Greece Loan Decision Delayed

Euro weakens as the week starts as the approval for the next tranche of EUR 12b of the EUR 110b of Greece bailout fund was delayed till July. While the approval is still widely expected as Eurozone leaders just simply won't let Greece default, they'd now like to see passing of the austerity measures first. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker "forcefully reminded the Greek government that by the end of this month they have to see to it that we are all convinced that all the commitments they made are fulfilled". The fund is needed by Greece to rollover maturing debts to September so as to buy time for getting the second bailout from EU.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.87; (P) 114.33; (R1) 114.95; More

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway trading could be seen. Though, as noted before, recent development suggests that decline from 123.31 is resuming. We'd expect upside of recovery to be limited below 116.69 resistance and finally bring downside breakout. Below 113.41 will confirm resumption of whole fall from 123.31 and should then target 61.8% projection of 121.83 to 113.41 from 117.88 at 112.67 next.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised

EUR Meeting of the Eurozone Finance Ministers



22:45 NZD Manufacturing Activity Q1 2.90%
3.10% 3.00%
23:01 GBP Rightmove House Prices M/M Jun 0.60%
1.30%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance Total (JPY) May -0.47T -0.54T -0.50T -0.47T
6:00 EUR German PPI M/M May
0.10% 1.00%
6:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y May
6.30% 6.40%
8:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Apr
-4.8B -4.7B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6180

Although the British pound rebounded last Friday to as high as 1.6200, as cable has retreated after faltering below previous resistance at 1.4225, suggesting the correction from 1.6078 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen but break of support at 1.6094 is needed to confirm and bring resumption of recent decline for retest of 1.6078, then 1.6046-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5345-1.6747 and previous support)

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4250

Despite Friday’s brief rise to 1.4339, the subsequent retreat from there has retained our view that the rebound from last week’s low of 1.4073 is still a retracement of recent decline and might have ended at 1.4339, hence consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to support at 1.4128 (Friday’s low), break there would confirm this view and bring resumption of decline for retest of 1.4073 and possibly towards 1.4055..

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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