Euro Resuming Rally on Trichet, Aussie Down after RBA

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Daily Report: Euro Resuming Rally on Trichet, Aussie Down after RBA

Euro is trying to resume recent rally after ECB Trichet hinted that he's starting to endorse bond rollovers in Greece. Trichet said that bond rollover is "not a default" and is something that ECB would consider "appropriate". Trichet noted that the bank would not oppose to private creditors being asked to "maintain their level of outstanding credit." Wellink also said that rollovers could be part of a new bailout package. EUR/USD's rally is still in force for the moment but whether it could power through 1.5 psychological will remain highly dependent on whether Trichet would signal a July hike later this week.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6312; (P) 1.6386; (R1) 1.6431; More.

At this point, we're still favoring the case that pull back from 1.6546 has completed at 1.6285 and rebound from 1.6058 is resuming. Break of 1.6546 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target a retest on 1.6744 high first and then 61.8% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6744 from 1.6058 at 1.6924 next. On the downside, however, below 1.6285 will flip bias back to the downside and turn focus back to 1.6058 support instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y May -2.10% 2.00% 5.20%
4:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 4.75% 4.75% 4.75%
5:00 JPY Leading Index Apr P 96.4 96.5 100.1
7:15 CHF CPI M/M May
-0.10% 0.10%
7:15 CHF CPI Y/Y May
0.30% 0.30%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr
0.30% -0.90%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Apr
0.00% -1.70%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Apr
2.00% -4.00%
19:45 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks



Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.6330

Cable did extend yesterday's fall from 1.6460 overnight to as low as 1.6324 this morning (we recommended to exit long entered at 1.6360 and buy again at 1.6330), however, as the British pound has rebounded from there today, retaining our view that further consolidation above last week's low at 1.6285 would take place and mild upside bias remains for test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6406).

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 80.05

Despite overnight retreat to 80.04, as the greenback found renewed buying interest there and has rebounded, retaining our view that further consolidation above yesterday's low at 79.97 (where a 'hammer' candlestick pattern was formed) would be seen, mild upside bias remains for retracement of recent decline and above 80.40 (yesterday's high) would bring test of the upper Kumo (now at 80.69), break there would add credence to this view

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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