Dollar Soft ahead of Non-Farm Payroll, Disappointment Anticipated

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Daily Report: Dollar Soft ahead of Non-Farm Payroll, Disappointment Anticipated

Dollar remains as traders are awaiting the market moving non-farm payroll report today and is vulnerable to more downside against Euro and Swissy. Markets were expecting NFP to show 190k expansion in the US job market in May with unemployment rate down to 8.9%. But such expectations were adjusted lower after the disappointing ADP private report. The ADP report showed just 38k job growth in the private sector in May, which was the lowest number since last September. Adding around 50k deviation, the NFP number we're getting today wound be slightly below 90k indeed. Another sign of weakness is the job market is that ISM manufacturing employment component dipped to 58.2 in May too, which was the worst number this year so far. Initial jobless claims also stayed above 400k level throughout May.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8398; (P) 0.8425; (R1) 0.8449; More.

USD/CHF loses some downside momentum as seen with mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. But after all, with 0.8546 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and current decline from 0.8945 is still expected to extend further towards 100% projection of 0.9339 to 0.8552 from 0.8945 at 0.8158 next. On the upside, though, above 0.8546 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Apr -1.60% 0.50% 2.20% 2.00%
8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services May F
55.4 55.4
8:30 GBP PMI Services May
54.2 54.3
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls May
190K 244K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate May
8.90% 9.00%
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing May
54 52.8
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4565

Although the single currency has retreated after intra-day marginal rise to 1.4518 (yesterday's high was 1.4515), as long as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4434) holds, upside risk remains for recent upmove from 1.34968 to extend one more rise to 1.4530/35 (50% projection of 1.4011-1.4459 measuring from 1.4308), however, loss of upward momentum would limit upside to 1.4569 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4940-1.3968)

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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8325 or sell at 0.8545

Dollar's recovery after finding support at 0.8402 yesterday has retained our view that further consolidation above this week's low at 0.8383 would take place but break of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.8465) is needed to suggest a temporary low is possibly formed, bring retracement to 0.8500/10, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around previous resistance at 0.8547, bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

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Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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