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Mid-Day Report: Markets Tread Water, Aussie Pares Gain ahead of RBAMarket actions are rather subdued today as traders are awaiting key event risks later this week. Euro remains firmly supported by expectation of rate hike from ECB on Thursday but there isn't any fresh stimulus for further rally. EUR/USD is still struggling around 1.425 level despite edging higher to 1.4267 earlier today. Data from Eurozone saw sentix investor confidence dropped sharply from 17.1 to 14.2 in April. Eurozone PPI rose 0.8% mom, 6.6% yoy in February. Other data released today saw UK PMI construction dropped just slightly to 56.4 in March. Japan monetary base rose 16.9% yoy in March. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 83.20; (P) 83.97; (R1) 84.81; More. Intraday in USD/JPY remains on the upside with 83.42 minor support intact. Current rise from 76.40 is expected to extend towards 61.8% retracement of 94.97 to 76.40 at 87.87 next. Sustained break there will further affirm the case of medium term reversal and should target 94.97 resistance next. On the downside, below 83.42 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 80.50 support and bring rise resumption. |
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| Special Reports |
New Tankan Survey Shows Modest Drop In Sentiment After Earthquake. Actual Impacts Far More SeriousThe BOJ released the 'post-earthquake' Tankan survey today, separating responses received from February 24 to March 11 and from March 12 to March 31. While forward-looking business sentiment for the second quarter was weakened after the earthquake, the headline diffusion indices (DIs) was largely unchanged before and after the natural disaster. We believe this set of data is not representative and does not reflect the full effects of the earthquake as companies surveyed after the disaster numbered 2 618, just around one-third of the 7998 companies surveyed before the disaster. RBA To Say On Hold For A Fourth MeetingThe RBA is expected to pause for another month, leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a 4th meeting. The market has currently priced in +15 bps hikes in the next 12 months. While domestic growth momentum in the near-term 1Q11 will be affected by the floods in Queensland, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan has raised the uncertainty in economic outlook. While the natural disaster in Japan may weaken Australia's growth in the near-term, it will boost the economy in the longer-term as demand for commodities will increase for reconstruction needs. Note that Japan accounts for about 19% of Australia's exports. |
| Economic Indicators Update | Learn Expert Strategies for Pulling Profits from the Markets. The London Traders Expo on April 8-9, 2011 at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre. Visit The London Traders Expo online to register FREE.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6095Although the British pound has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 1.6120 and marginal rise above 1.6176 cannot be ruled out, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.6225 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6403 to 1.5937) and reckon resistance at 1.6265-70 would hold, bring retreat later. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.50Although the greenback has continued to move lower after retreating from Friday's high of 84.74 and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for retracement to previous resistance at 83.75, reckon 83.50/55 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 81.55-84.74) would attract renewed buying interest, bring another upmove later. Above 84.35/40 would signal the correction from 84.74 has ended and bring retest of this level Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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