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Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Start the Week Mildly LowerDollar and yen open the week mildly lower as last week's risk appetite trend extends. Aussie edges to new record high above 1.04 against dollar while USD/CAD also dips through 0.962. The BOJ released the 'post-earthquake' Tankan survey today, separating responses received from February 24 to March 11 and from March 12 to March 31. While forward-looking business sentiment for the second quarter was weakened after the earthquake, the headline diffusion indices (DIs) was largely unchanged before and after the natural disaster. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9601; (P) 0.9653; (R1) 0.9682; More. USDCAD's drops further to as low as 0.9615 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current down trend is expected to target 61.8% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9589 next. On the upside, above 0.9673 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 0.9826 resistance and bring fall resumption. |
| Special Reports |
New Tankan Survey Shows Modest Drop In Sentiment After Earthquake. Actual Impacts Far More SeriousThe BOJ released the 'post-earthquake' Tankan survey today, separating responses received from February 24 to March 11 and from March 12 to March 31. While forward-looking business sentiment for the second quarter was weakened after the earthquake, the headline diffusion indices (DIs) was largely unchanged before and after the natural disaster. We believe this set of data is not representative and does not reflect the full effects of the earthquake as companies surveyed after the disaster numbered 2 618, just around one-third of the 7998 companies surveyed before the disaster. RBA To Say On Hold For A Fourth MeetingThe RBA is expected to pause for another month, leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a 4th meeting. The market has currently priced in +15 bps hikes in the next 12 months. While domestic growth momentum in the near-term 1Q11 will be affected by the floods in Queensland, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan has raised the uncertainty in economic outlook. While the natural disaster in Japan may weaken Australia's growth in the near-term, it will boost the economy in the longer-term as demand for commodities will increase for reconstruction needs. Note that Japan accounts for about 19% of Australia's exports. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6110Despite Friday's brief fall to 1.5972, the subsequent rally and the break of 1.6152 signals the rise from 1.5937 is still in progress for a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.6190/00, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.6225 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6403 to 1.5937) due to near term overbought condition and minor resistance at 1.6265-70 would hold, bring retreat later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.50Although dollar's retreat after last week's rally to 84.74 suggests consolidation below this level would take place and retracement to previous resistance at 83.75 cannot be ruled out, reckon 83.50/55 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 81.55-84.74) would attract renewed buying interest, bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would extend recent upmove from record low of 76.25 to psychological resistance at 85.00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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