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Daily Report: Dollar Selloff Accelerates Again after FOMC, Q1 GDP WatchedDollar index breaches 73 level today as dollar's selloff reaccelerates again following FOMC rate decisions and Bernanke's press conference overnight. Gold jumps to new record high at 1534, taking AUD/USD to new record high at 1.0945 too. EUR/USD and GBP/USD also rise strongly and are trading above 1.48 and 1.67 respectively. USD/CAD, though, is kept above recent low of 0.9453 as crude oil is struggling around recent high at 113 level. Kiwi also lags behind other commodity currencies after a relatively dovish RBNZ statement. Yen, meanwhile, is trying to recover from yesterday's losses. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0803; (P) 1.0841; (R1) 1.0908; More AUD/USD soars further to as high as 1.0945 so far today. 61.8% projection of 0.8315 to 1.0181 from 0.9704 at 1.0857 is already met and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.1 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 1.0773 support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ Leaves OCR At 2.5%, Staying Dovish As Earthquake Aftermath RemainsAs widely expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%. We mentioned after the previous meeting (when the central bank lowered the policy rate by -50 bps) that the OCR would stay at current level for the rest of the year and this meeting reinforced our view. At the accompanying statement, the central bank explicitly mentioned that 'higher oil prices and the elevated level of the New Zealand dollar are both unwelcome' as they will have 'some dampening effect on economic activity'. Fed Signals No Plan To TightenThe April statement, inaugural press briefing and the downwardly revised growth outlook suggested that the Fed will not begin tightening this year. Indeed, policymakers signaled that the timing is uncertain and is dependent on evolution of the economy. Concerning QE2, the Fed said that it will 'complete purchases of $600B of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter'. At the press briefing, Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the central bank is 'going to continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasury and MBS' so that securities holdings 'will remain approximately constant'. The Fed also maintained the reference that 'exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period'. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD –Buy again at 1.6510As the British pound has staged a strong rebound after holding above yesterday's low at 1.6432 and broke above indicated resistance at 1.6570 in part due to the release of UK GDP data, suggesting the correction from 1.6600 has ended at 1.6432 and recent upmove should resume, bring retest of 1.6600, break there would extend gain to 1.6620 and later towards 1.6655/60 Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 81.80As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after breaking the Ichimoku cloud top, adding credence to our view that temporary low has possibly been formed at 81.27 and consolidation with upside bias remains for a test of this week's high at 82.44, break there would suggest the decline from 85.53 top has ended and then headway to 82.80 would follow. Looking ahead, only break of resistance at 83.10 would retain bullishness Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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