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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovered But Lost Steam after GDP and Job DataDollar attempts a recovery earlier today but losses momentum after GDP and employment data. Advanced GDP report showed 1.8% annualized expansion in Q1, basically inline with expectation. GDP price index rose 1.9% qoq, lower than expectation of 2.4% The slowdown from prior quarter's 3.1% growth was expected and Bernanke has already said yesterday's that it's viewed by FOMC as "transitory". A bigger surprise today was the 25k jump in initial jobless claims in the week ended April 23 to 429k, hitting the highest level in three months and is much higher than expectation of 390k. It's also the third consecutive week that initial claims stayed above 400k level. Nevertheless, continuing claims dropped by 68k in the week ended April 16 to 3.64m, the lowest number since September 2008. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8665; (P) 0.8749; (R1) 0.8830; More. USD/CHF continues to stay in tight range above 0.8670 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidations. But even in case of recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. |
| Special Reports |
RBNZ Leaves OCR At 2.5%, Staying Dovish As Earthquake Aftermath RemainsAs widely expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%. We mentioned after the previous meeting (when the central bank lowered the policy rate by -50 bps) that the OCR would stay at current level for the rest of the year and this meeting reinforced our view. At the accompanying statement, the central bank explicitly mentioned that 'higher oil prices and the elevated level of the New Zealand dollar are both unwelcome' as they will have 'some dampening effect on economic activity'. Fed Signals No Plan To TightenThe April statement, inaugural press briefing and the downwardly revised growth outlook suggested that the Fed will not begin tightening this year. Indeed, policymakers signaled that the timing is uncertain and is dependent on evolution of the economy. Concerning QE2, the Fed said that it will 'complete purchases of $600B of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter'. At the press briefing, Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the central bank is 'going to continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasury and MBS' so that securities holdings 'will remain approximately constant'. The Fed also maintained the reference that 'exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period'. |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.4785As the single currency has continued to move lower after retreating from intra-day high of 1.4882, further consolidation would take place, however, as long as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4757) holds, bullishness remains for upmove to resume later. Above said resistance would extend further gain to 1.4900/05 (1.236 times projection of 1.4494-1.4715 measuring from 1.4630) but 1.4988 (1.618 times projection) would limit upside Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0800The Australian dollar has surged again on broad-based weakness in the greenback, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain towrads 1.0990/00 would be seen, however, reckon 1.1060 (61.8% projection of 0.8066-1.0257 measuring from 0.9706) would limit this wave v of 5 and bring correction later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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