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Daily Report: Yen and Dollar Extend Down TrendYen and dollar resume weakness today and are both broadly lower against European majors. Yen extended the post intervention decline as partly driven by revival of carry trades. In addition, BoJ is said to be considering a credit program to spur lending for reviving the economy after March's natural disaster. The bank may make an announcement as early as tomorrow after a two day meeting. Dollar, on the other hand is pressured as Fed minutes showed diverging opinion among members on whether to unwind the stimulus measures this year. Gold jumped to record high of 1458.6 overnight while crude oil is firm above 108, both keeping the pressure on the greenback. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 136.42; (P) 137.36; (R1) 139.21; More GBP/JPY rises further to as high as 139.56 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 100% projection of 122.4 to 132.96 from 130.17 at 140.73, which is close to 140 psychological level. Break will target 161.8% projection at 147.25. On the downside, below 137.95 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained well above 132.96 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. |
| Special Reports |
FOMC Member Divided On Whether To Unwind StimulusFOMC minutes for the March meeting indicated that policymakers were divided on whether to begin exiting monetary stimulus this year. While the economic outlook over the medium-term was largely unchanged from the projections published in January, the staff revised up its projection for consumer price inflation in the near-term, largely driven by the recent increases in the prices of energy and food. Overall, the consensus is that the rise in headline inflation as temporary but policymakers will put much focus on inflation expectations. If elevated price levels prove to be a long-term issue, they will act on it. RBA Leaves Cash Rate at 4.75%As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a 4th meeting as policymakers view the current monetary stance is 'mildly restrictive' and 'appropriate'. The accompanying statement is almost the same as the previous one, signaling little has changed since the March meeting. The RBA stated that the floods hit Queensland over the summer 'have reduced output and the resumption of coal production in flooded mines is taking longer than initially expected'. Concerning the situation in Japan, the central bank believed it will have 'a noticeable effect on Japanese production in the near term, although the impact on the broader Asian region is expected to be limited'. |
| Economic Indicators Update | Learn Expert Strategies for Pulling Profits from the Markets. The London Traders Expo on April 8-9, 2011 at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre. Visit The London Traders Expo online to register FREE. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6230As the British pound has continued to move higher in part due to cross-buying, suggesting the rise from 1.5937 is still in progress and further gain to 1.6370/75 is likely, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there and resistance at 1.6403 would hold and risk has increased for a correction later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 84.75Yesterday's rally and the breach of resistance at 84.74 confirms recent upmove from record low of 76.25 has resumed and may extend further gain to 85.75 and possibly towards 85.95/00 (100% projection of 82.57 to 84.74 measuring from 83.80), however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 86.26 (100% projection of 76.25 to 82.00 measuring from 80.51) would hold Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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