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Daily Report: Dollar Opens the Week Steady, Yen SoftDollar opens the week steady as selling pressure eased after policymakers agreed on a deficit-consolidation plan and avoided government shutdown. Government operations will continue through the end of September but then public spending cut was revised up to about $38B. The huge fiscal consolidation is expected to tamper economic recovery. Meanwhile, policymakers will need to debate on lifting the debt ceiling by mid-May and reach a long-term plan to cut deficits. There is no important US data to be released but several Fed presidents will be speaking later today, including Dudley, Evans and Yellen. Yellen has already said on Saturday that US economy is still not strong enough for the Fed to start reversing its extremely accommodative monetary policy.. All are known dove and their comments might trigger some fresh selling in the greenback. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8783; (P) 0.8813; (R1) 0.8868; More With 0.8852 resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could still be seen. Another fall cannot be ruled out but even in that case, we'd expect downside to be contained above 0.8653 support and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 0.8852 will target 0.8940 resistance first and then 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. |
| Special Reports |
BOC To Leave Rates At 1% Despite More Hawkish StatementThe Bank of Canada will leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% for a 7th month on Tuesday. Yet, the accompanying statement will likely be slightly more hawkish than the previous one given signs of strong domestic growth and rising inflationary pressures. The BOC will weigh growth and inflation against appreciation in Canadian dollar, as well as uncertainties in Japan and the MENA region in deciding to stand on the sideline in April. We expect the central bank to resume tightening in June. |
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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 84.80Failure to extend intra-day rebound and the subsequent retreat from 85.16 suggest further consolidation would take place and indicated support at 84.60 needs to hold to retain our bullishness for another rally later, above 85.40 would bring a retest of last week's high at 85.53. A break of this resistance would confirm recent upmove from record low at 76.25 has resumed and extend gain to 85.95/00 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4395Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.4485, as the single currency has retreated after failing to break Friday's high at 1.4489, suggesting consolidation below this level would take place and below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4436) would bring minor correction to 1.4395 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4243 to 1.4489) but renewed buying interest should emerge there, bring another rise later. Above said resistance would extend recent upmove to 1.4500 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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