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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Steady after Data, Euro Lower on Ireland DowngradeDollar remains steadily in range in early US session after data shows stronger than expected inflation reading in March. CPI rose to 2.7% yoy versus expectation of 2.6% yoy, highest reading since December 2009 and a sharp jump from February's 2.1% yoy. Empire stat manufacturing index beat expectation and rose to 21.7 in March. TIC capital flow dropped to 26.9B in February. Industrial production rose 0.8% in March, better than consensus of 0.6%. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4397; (P) 1.4455 (R1) 1.4546; More. EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.4519 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat might be seen but we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.4247 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.4159 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. |
| Special Reports |
China to Tighten Further as Inflation Remains ElevatedChina's macroeconomic report revealed a robust economic environment despite government tightening. GDP expanded +9.7% y/y in 1Q11 while CPI jumped to +5.4%, the highest level in 32 months, in March. Asian stock markets declined after the report as investors worried that the government will accelerate tightening measures as inflation remains elevated. While we believe we should be cautious towards further tightening, we should not view it too pessimistically. Indeed, Premier Wen Jiao Bao warned earlier in the week about over-tightening while raising the tone on inflation fighting. Beige Book Shows Widespread Improvements In Virtually Every DistrictThe Beige Book based on information collected before April 4 2011 was modestly upbeat. The economy in the 12 regional Fed districts 'generally continued to improve'. The Fed stated that 'while many districts described the improvements as only moderate, most districts stated that gains were widespread across sectors'. Concerning recent surges in commodity prices, the survey revealed that pressures to increase wages were 'weak or subdued'. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.8930Although dollar's near term sideways trading is expected to continue, as long as yesterday's low at 0.8896 holds, further consolidation is seen and mild upside bias remains for a test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.8979) but break of previous support at 0.9020 is needed to signal a temporary low is formed and bring retracement towards 0.9059-62 which is likely to hold from here. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0440Although the Australian dollar rebounded after retreating to 1.0390 earlier this week, break of recent high at 1.0581 is needed to confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.0645/50 (50% projection of 0.9706 to 1.0422 measuring from 1.0288), however, loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside to 1.0730 (61.8% projection) and bring a much needed correction later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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