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Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Resumes Rally, Shrugs off News on Debt CrisisEUR/USD breaks last week's high to resume recent rally as dollar weakness returns. USD/CHF dives to new record low of 0.8744 while AUD/USD is back pressing record high of 1.0773. Data from US saw S&P Case-Shill 20 city house price dropped -3.3% yoy in February. Consumer confidence beat expectation and improved to 65.4 in April. Euro is rather unbothered by news on the debt crisis. Sterling, though, was weighed down by much worse than expected CBI trends total orders, which dropped sharply to -11 in April. Swiss trade surplus narrowed to CHF 1.09b in March while UBS consumption indicator improved to 1.66. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.4527; (P) 1.4577 (R1) 1.4629; More. EUR/USD's retreat was rather brief and the break of 1.4647 resistance suggests that recent rally is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4492 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, retreat is expected to be contained well above 1.4157 support and bring rally resumption. |
| Special Reports |
Bernanke To Re-shape Thinking At The First FOMC Press BriefingThe April FOMC meeting will unlikely contain any surprise in monetary policies, i.e. the Fed funds rate will stay a 0-0.25% and the asset-buying program will be maintained at $600B with expiry in June. The focus is on the first post-meeting press briefing at which Chairman Ben Bernanke will attempt to shape market expectations on inflation and monetary outlook. The briefings will be held 4 times a year and are scheduled to coincide with the updates of economic forecasts. RBNZ To Stand Aside After Cutting In MarchThe RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged, after cutting it by -50 bps to 2.5% last month, at the April meeting. Economic indicators appeared to have gradually recovered from the earthquake in February. Yet, more evidence in coming months is needed to prove the situation has improved. Meanwhile, benign underlying inflation also bought time for the central bank to take a wait-and-see approach and leave the monetary stance unchanged. Governor Alan Bollard will also clarify his comments made last week on exchange rates. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD –Buy at 1.6440Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.6533, as the British pound failed to close above the Ichimoku cloud top on an hourly basis and price has retreated, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, downside should be limited to intra-day support at 1.6437 and bring another rebound later. A break of indicated resistance at 1.6552/53 (yesterday's high and this would also penetrate the upper Kumo at 1.6523) would signal the correction from last week's high of 1.6600 has ended Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 118.00Despite last week's fall to 116.49, as the single currency then rebounded to as high as 120.39, suggesting low has possibly been formed and consolidation with upside bias is seen, a sustained breach of said resistance at 120.39 would suggest the correction from 123.33 top has possibly ended there and bring further gain towards 120.72 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 123.33 to 116.49). Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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